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In fact, despite the defeat, Essendon remain nicely poised for a home final if they keep it together over the season’s last four games. Whether they can after disastrous finishes to 2012 and 2013 remain to be seen, but the signs from Friday night were pretty good.
We imagine Essendon had two goals heading in: The first was obviously to win. Yet with the Swans sure to be fired up after losing to Hawthorn, winning was probably never on the cards, so the next goal, we suspect, was limit the damage.
It may be overstating things, but making sure Sydney didn’t really fire up was seriously vital to Essendon’s season for a number of reasons.
To start with, it was important for percentage. Looking at how the season can pan out, there’s a chance Essendon can win their last four games and finish level with North Melbourne on 56 points. If that’s the case, then both teams could then be battling for sixth on the ladder and a home final and percentage may end up deciding this.
At the moment Essendon’s percentage is 107.7, just a smidgen off North’s 112.5 and Adelaide’s 109. But by making sure they weren’t spanked by Sydney, Essendon limited the damage to that percentage and ensured they remained in the hunt for a home final if results fall their way.
That home final may be especially important too, for Adelaide and Port Adelaide are lurking in the lower section of the eight and no one wants to be heading to Adelaide Oval for a potential Elimination Final.
More than percentage, though, avoiding a thrashing was essential to Essendon’s confidence, for in the last two years, all it took was one heavy defeat for everything to go off the rails.
In 2012, that one came against St Kilda in Round 15 as Stephen Milne tore the Bombers a new one. Although they went on to beat the then hapless Port the week after, Essendon would go on to lose their last seven games and be nowhere near the eight.
Last year it was a similar story. Heading into Round 18, the Bombers had won six straight matches and were coming up against Hawthorn in a one-versus-two encounter. But that was the night Hawthorn – and in particular Lance Franklin with eight goals – decided to turn things on. The result was a 56-point loss that could have been much worse as Essendon went from contenders to pretenders in the space of a single night.
That match was also the start of the supplement saga really exploding in Essendon’s face over the finals few rounds. But coach Mark Thompson hinted on Friday night that it was more the big loss to Hawthorn that hit the side’s form in that bleak final month of 2013.
“This game is so much about confidence,” Thompson declared in his post-match press conference.
“And, when it leaves your body or your mind it’s hard to get back.”
While Essendon were boosted before the game by Franklin’s late withdrawal with knee soreness, a confidence-sapping loss still appeared on the cards as they conceded five goals to one in the first term.
While Essendon were better in the second, the margin was still 28 points at half-time, before the Bombers stepped up a gear, firing off three unanswered goals in a five-minute burst during the third quarter to shrink the gap down to ten.
Sydney, of course fired back, and while Essendon could never really push on and challenge the Swans, the fact they made them work the entire night will be a big plus for Thompson and ensure the team’s confidence remains intact.
“You know, at three-quarter time they were really pleased with their efforts and so was I,” he said.
“We were all just like, ‘thank goodness, we can still play this game’, and it was against a good opposition.
“Sometimes those nights can go really bad and they have in the past for Essendon so we’re pleased about that.
“We haven’t lost too much tonight ‘cause there’s no shame in losing to Sydney up here,” he added.
“We’ve got four matches to go and yeah, we have to play well. But I believe that we can get into some good form really quickly and get some good players back and we’ll just charge on and hopefully beat Richmond next Friday night and move on from this game pretty quick.
“Don’t make me out to be so pessimistic. I’m not, I’m ok. It’s only a loss to Sydney. It’s no shame
“And we’ll improve no doubts. No doubts from here. Don’t write that we’re not confident,” he said.