The Championships - Doncaster Mile race preview

Sacred Mile

Updated after scratchings Saturday morning.
Odds courtesy of Sportingbet.com.au

Race 1: Kindergarten Stakes (1100m) 12.15pm
The Fave: Unraced Kaepernick ($4.60) heads an open betting race off the back of a Rosehill barrier trial win in wet conditions.
The Query: All three first starters - Kaepernick, Redoutable Heart ($8.00) and Washington Heights ($8.50) - are recent barrier trial winners.
The Money: Hallowed Crown ($8.50 to $8). Very little action, but that could change raceday.
The Bet: While race experience is always important, none of the raced brigade have set the world on fire ahead of a Group 3 race. So for mine the three first starters are the key to the race. Really liked the two recent trials of the Chris Waller-trained Redoutable Heart. But if there's a market go for any of the first starters, respect it, and open the wallet accordingly.

Race 2: Carbine Club Stakes (1600m) 12.50pm
The Fave: Gypsy Diamond ($2.50) has raced in top class all her career. But she doesn't win often, and is a top-weighted filly being asked to take on the males.
The Query: Gai Waterhouse saddles up three runners. Two of them - Liberty's Choice ($9) and Equator ($12) come off really poor last starts.
The Money: Gypsy Diamond has been very solidly supported - $2.90 into $2.50 with Sportingbet. Liberty's Choice is $10 into $9.
The Bet:  Sinjoren ($15) put together four wins in a row last prep, and was quite OK when third first-up in restricted grade. At right distance range now and in an event where there's value away from the top of the market, he's one of several blowout chances. Also consider for multiples widely-drawn Rock Sturdy ($7) who chased home Derby fancy Singing Flame last start, and Bart Cummings-trained filly Cast In Stone ($41), who ran well racing out of her grade in the Keith Nolan Classic last start.

Race 3: PJ Bell Stakes (1200m) 1.25pm
The Fave: Bound For Earth ($6) is one of six horses under double figures in what the market sees as a very open affair.
The Query: Regular Victorian spruik horse Politeness ($9) heads to Sydney, and again is well in the market. But despite having never won a city race, she was terrific last start charging home for second at Sandown with a big weight. Is she finally ready to win?
The Money: None to speak of.
The Bet: Despite the market's indecision, really think there's two clear standouts here - Bound For Earth and Calming Influence ($7). Bound For Earth was just nutted by Sidestep last start, and is back to fillies grade here. Beat Guelph last Spring, chased home Zoustar, and is a Group 2 winner and Group 1 placed. Calming Influence worked her way through the grades like a progressive horse last prep. Really nice barrier trial last month on a wet track too. Back them both, and key them in your multiples.

Race 4: Chairman's Handicap (2600m) 2.00pm
The Fave: The Offer ($2.75) was a strong winner last start in wet at Group 3 level. Three wins from four goes on heavy tracks.
The Query: Victorian Sertorius ($3.30) has had a really strange prep for a horse whose consistency has always been his hallmark. He's raced upside down, missed the start, overraced, and mixed the average with teasing efforts. Yet he's also turned in two great runs at Group 1 level.
The Money: Sertorius ($3.80 into $3.30).
The Bet: If Sertorius brings his A-game, he wins. It's really hard to ignore his fourth behind Silent Achiever, It's A Dundeel and Fiorente in the Group 1 BMW last start. Any of those three would start $1.10 here, and the Sydney stayers - Junoob aside - appear an even bunch. Prepared to give him one more chance.

Race 5: AJC Sires' Produce Stakes (1400m) 2.35pm
The Fave: Believe Yourself ($4.00) was an excellent fourth in the Golden Slipper last start. Logical favourite.
The Query: Blue Diamond placegetter Cornrow ($16) was well below par in the Golden Slipper. Still a maiden despite some really good runs in his career to date.
The Money: Both Believe Yourself's stablemates have been heavily backed. Peggy Jean is $4.80 to $4.20, including $3,000 at $4.40 with Sportingbet. Very good behind Slipper placegetter Bring Me The Maid on heavy track last time out. Nash Rawiller to ride for Gerald Ryan. Also Time For War is $9 into $7.50.
The Bet: Believe Yourself. Her run from a wide barrier in the Slipper was first-class, and if she can handle the seven-day back-up and distance rise, should go very close to winning. Her two wins prior were excellent. Remember fillies filled the first seven spots in the Golden Slipper. They appear to have the males covered on exposed form.

Race 6: AJC Derby (2400m) 3.10pm
The Fave: Criterion ($3), not surprisingly, off his strong Rosehill Guineas win last time out. Placed at Group 1 level this prep also.
The Query: Will the Rosehill Guineas form, in which several horses suffered poor rides or issues, stack up?
The Money: Criterion has been heavily backed everywhere ($3.60 into $3). Sportingbet have taken a $2,000 bet at $8 on Thunder Fantasy. He's now $7.
The Bet: New Zealander Puccini ($9) would have slept well after the Rosehill Guineas. He was ridden hard to cross and lead, and made to go like the clappers until he eventually couldn’t go any more. Given he was at 2000m off a four-week break, that's not surprising. He'll obviously be fitter and has won at this distance at Group 1 level before. Michael Walker is replaced by Craig Williams on board for this, which is significant. Gallatin ($15), who we tipped you into at $26 last week, did what good horses do in his impressive last-to-first win. He's next best, and the horse he nutted seven days ago Singing Flame ($10) should be considered for multiples.

Race 7: TJ Smith Stakes (1200m) 3.50pm
The Fave: Lankan Rupee ($3.60) has won six of his past seven since being gelded. With no nuts, he's gone nuts, going from restricted grade winner to Listed, Group 2 and two spectacular Group 1 wins.
The Query: Gordon Lord Byron ($5.50) got a super ride and saloon passage to win the George Ryder at his first Aussie start. Back in distance which won't help, but clearly a class animal. 
The Money: Lankan Rupee is $3.80 into $3.60. Sportingbet have taken a $6,000 bet at $3.80 on Lankan Rupee.
The Bet: Going with Buffering ($6.50) as the bulletproof option. Failed last start but rarely runs two bad ones in a row, and is a proven Group 1 horse. If Lankan Rupee handles going right-handed, he's right in it. Put Gordon Lord Byron in your multiples.

Race 8: Doncaster Mile (1600m) 4.30pm
The Fave: Messene ($3.80 to $5.00) has been an easing favourite, but was way too short to start and is getting towards his right price now. Has drawn badly, but form is impeccable. A beautiful striding horse who has gone from restricted to Open to Group 2 winner this prep. Weary ($5.50) has also been heavily backed and will press Messene for favouritism at the jump.
The Query: How the track is playing by this time of the day. Will it give those drawn wider more chance than we all might think?
The Money: Weary, a good wet track winner last start who's down in the weights, has been the most significant mover ($7 into $5.50). Hawkspur is $12 into $9, and Dear Demi ($41 to $26). A $1,000 each-way bet on Mouro has pushed him from $101 into $61.
The Bet: The three class horses I thought would be the ones to beat - Boban (now scratched), Streama and Messene - have all drawn the car park so their winning chances take a big hit. In the past 10 years, Doncaster winners have come from barriers 13, 16, 12, 1, 6, 12, 10, 14, 10 and 4. The fact mid-field barriers generally do well is another tick for Sacred Falls ($12), who won this race last year, loves the mile, loves wet going, and has been good in two runs this campaign at Group 1 level. Hasn't won since last year's Doncaster, which incidentally was run on a wet track. Hong Kong's leading rider, Australian Zac Purton, takes the mount and interestingly returned to ride this horse last start. Sacred Falls is my top pick in a race made tougher by the barrier draw. For multiples, throw in Streama ($21), Messene, Weary and Dear Demi - a Group 1 winner, multiple Group 1 placed at this distance, hasn't missed a place this track and distance, and has excellent wet track form. She's run a place in a Caulfield Cup and Mackinnon Stakes against males. Her first-up effort was outstanding.
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Race 9: Adrian Knox Stakes (2000m) 5.10pm
The Fave: Lady Cumquat ($5.00) was a Group 3 winner this distance last start in New Zealand. Not sure how that form will stack up here.
The Query: The Kensington maiden win for Amanpour ($7.00) three starts back was awesome. Led them a merry dance out in front and just kept going. Nothing went right last start in tough mares race when she missed jump. Scratched last week, and a wet track winner.
The Money: Arabian Gold ($8.00 to $7.00) is a class filly who beat Solicit in Melbourne last Spring this distance. Excels in wet, and should be sitting just on leader's back here. Missvonn was OK behind Lucia Valentina last weekend, and is $10 into $6 - a decent-sized move.
The Bet: Amanpour and Arabian Gold are my top two. Amanpour should lead this time and will take catching if she gets her own way in front. Arabian Gold has the sit and will be poised to strike if the leader folds up.

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