Odds thanks to Sportingbet.com.au
Race 1: Fernhill Handicap (1600m) 12.10pm
The Fave: Veuvelicious ($2.30) had the big flashing red light on his scone as he rattled home for third a fortnight ago. Second-placed Scratch Me Lucky has since run a super second at Group 1 level.
The Query: Gai Waterhouse-trained Cyclone ($10.00) was fourth in the Magic Millions, but remains a maiden. After an okay first-up third in a city maiden, really paddled in wet going in a far weaker race. Likely to face similar conditions again, though blinkers go on.
The Money: None to speak of.
The Bet: Careless ($4.40) remains a maiden, but liked his run a fortnight ago when he chased home several he races against here. Way too far back to mount a serious challenge last time, but was well supported previous two runs and hopefully will race closer from a better barrier.
Race 2: South Pacific Classic (1400m) 12.45pm
The Fave: Woodbine ($3.70). The son of former gun filly Miss Finland drops in grade from two okay runs at Group 2 level to a Listed race.
The Query: Longma ($4.80) won two Perth barrier trials last year like a super horse, and then was an absolutely stunning debut winner in a wet Werribee maiden when trained by Mick Price. Raced well Group 2 before hurt in the Caulfield Guineas prelude last Spring. Got too far back in far weaker race first-up for new trainer Gai Waterhouse. The wildcard here.
The Money: Woodbine's drift from $3.60 to $3.70 is the only move of note.
The Bet: Among unknown quantities rising from restricted grade, or horses with convictions, rolling the dice with Longma. Can win if he brings what he showed in Victoria.
Race 3: Royal Randwick Stakes (1200m) 1.20pm
The Fave: Golden Slipper fifth-placegetter Memorial and Shaumari, impressive on debut in the wet, are joint favourites at $4.80 in a wide open race.
The Query: Sultry Feeling ($12) was a good third to Golden Slipper placegetter Bring Me The Maid and subsequent Group 1 winner Peggy Jean last start in the wet. Super form reference for this.
The Money: Darley galloper Shaumari has been heavily backed this week from $6 into $4.80.
The Bet: In a tough race, Sultry Feeling ($12) and Ygritte ($8.50) at odds. Ygritte was really good finishing second to Clifton Red in Melbourne last start. Has had 40 days off since, and back on home soil can continue Gerald Ryan's great run with two-year-olds.
Race 4: Royal Sovereign Stakes (1200m) 1.55pm
The Fave: Sidestep ($4.20) is a Golden Slipper placegetter, a Group 2 winner, and has been good at his two runs this time in, including a last-start win.
The Query: Bounding ($4.80) appears a special three-year-old filly, and beat older sprinters at Group 1 level in New Zealand in January. New Zealanders with this sort of record should always be respected. The market is doing just that.
The Money: Sportingbet reports big backing for Bounding ($7.50 into $4.80).
The Bet: Really respect Bounding here, as my gut feeling is she's several cuts above the usual Kiwi invaders. Takes a really good filly to beat older, male Group 1 sprinters no matter what country it's in. Wide barrier and never raced on wet tracks, but she's very, very good. Sidestep next best.
Race 5: Queen of the Turf Stakes (1600m) 2.30pm
The Fave: Catkins ($3.30) is high-class and always gives her best, but has never won at Group 1 level.
The Query: Solicit comes back from 2000m to a mile instead of taking on the Oaks. Interesting move as she was terrific in two Melbourne runs at 1400m this campaign. She'll lead them out and be hard to run down.
The Money: Slight drift for Catkins ($3.10 to $3.30). But Red Tracer has been backed and remains solid at $4.
The Bet: Forgive Red Tracer ($4) her rare failure when well backed in the George Ryder - a strange race in which she finished around some good horses. It is the only time she's bombed on a wet track, and is a dual Group 1 winner back to mares grade. Note too that Nash Rawiller returns to ride her.
Race 6: Australian Oaks (2400m) 3.05pm
The Fave: Lucia Valentina ($2.50) was excellent in a last to first Group 1 win a fortnight ago, beating many of her rivals here. Has been placed two of her three Australian starts - her only failure against older mares. Obvious favourite.
The Query: Missvonn ($15) backs up for a third successive Saturday. Her latest was a strong second in a 2000m Group 3. Can she handle the heavy workload over the mile and a half on a rain-affected track?
The Money: Rising Romance is $6.50 into $6 off back of a $5,000 wager with Sportingbet.
The Bet: New Zealander Rising Romance got way too far back behind Lucia Valentina last start, but hit the line really hard. That was her first start for a month and will be fitter for that. Never finished further back than fourth in her career, and was placed at Group 1 this distance against males. Expecting a sharp improvement in her grand final. Put Lucia Valentina, Missvonn and VRC Oaks placegetter Zanbagh ($6) in your multiples.
Race 7: Sydney Cup (3200m) 3.45pm
The Fave: The Offer ($3.20) was super winning last week on a heavy track, and has won four from five in those conditions. Done little wrong.
The Query: New Zealand visitor Who Shot Thebarman ($6.50) boasts an impressive record of six wins from nine starts. Won the two-mile Auckland Cup last time out, but goes into another 3200m race off a 43-day break.
The Money: Voleuse De Coeurs is $13 into $10. The Offer has drifted from $2.90 to $3.20.
The Bet: I've had my eye on Voleuse De Coeurs for this race since she resumed with a solid run in the Australian Cup. She was okay again in the BMW off a freshen, and she's clearly been set for this. It's the first time she's had two runs in quick succession since arriving in Australia for her first-up Melbourne Cup 10th place. A mare being asked to carry topweight, but she did carry 61kg to win the Irish St Leger at Group 1 level. Keep asking myself would any of the other runners finish top 10 in a Melbourne Cup? Doubt it. So she'll do me.
Race 8: Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) 4.25pm
The Fave: Carlton House ($4.20) was excellent in the Ranvet, but it's worth noting he hasn't won a race in nearly two years. It's A Dundeel ($4.60) and Silent Achiever ($4.40) will challenge for favouritism.
The Query: While Carlton House is the Queen's horse, surely Royal Descent is the biggest omen tip in years? The Queen Elizabeth Stakes? The Royals in town, including a much-talked about baby of royal descent? Excellent run when second in last week's Doncaster. Has won a Group 1 off a seven-day back-up before and loves the wet.
The Money: It's A Dundeel has been well backed from $6 into $4.60. Little nibble for Silent Achiever ($4.60 to $4.40). Carlton House on the drift - $3.50 to $4.20.
The Bet: Three options here. Take the Ranvet/BMW form (Silent Achiever, It's A Dundeel, Carlton House). Go the Doncaster route (Sacred Falls, Royal Descent). Or take the fresh horse. I'm taking option three - Boban - with a bit of option two - Royal Descent. Boban hasn't been as impressive as he was in the spring this autumn, but has still won a Group 1. First try at 2000m but has always given impression he'll cope. Scratched from the Doncaster last week, and this has always been earmarked as his grand final. Wet track only concern. Also like the Chris Waller-trained stablemate Royal Descent, who loves wet ground and should run really well.
Race 9: Sapphire Stakes (1200m) 5.05pm
The Fave: Plucky Belle ($4.20) was really good when she just missed last start behind Avoid Lightning. Never missed a place in wet conditions.
The Query: Peron ($5.00) is first-up and was scratched from TJ Smith last week for a far easier assignment. Has a sensational fresh record, and excels at 1200m.
The Money: None as yet, but watch market, especially with fresh pair Peron and Dystopia.
The Bet: Last start Dystopia was sixth in the Oakleigh Plate, running a decent race behind the country's best sprinters. Lankan Rupee won the race. You know the rest of that story. Spirit Of Boom was second. He's won at Group 1 level since. Dystopia is now back to Group 2 mares grade. Question is can she win this off a five-week freshen? On weights and form, impossible to go past. Peron a must for your multiples.