Good recent form is critical. Except when it's Bart Cummings or Lloyd Williams
Of the past 19 winners, only five have been unplaced at their lead-up run to the Cup. Of those, Jezabeel should have won instead of finishing sixth in the roughest Caulfield Cup in history. Makybe Diva was fourth in the Caulfield Cup and probably should have run a place prior to winning her first Melbourne Cup. The other three? The great Bart Cummings trained Viewed, and Lloyd Williams owned Efficient and Green Moon. Cummings doesn't have a runner this year. But like Cummings, Williams can peak his horses for Cup day regardless of previous form. Williams has been known to scratch his on Cup day if they are not up to the mark. For the Williams horses, this year look for Robert Hickmott as trainer in your form guide. Williams has six in the race – a quarter of the field – so tactically should also have an edge.
Horses with good recent form: 4 Sea Moon, 6 Fiorente, 8 Dandino, 10 Fawkner, 15 Mount Athos, 16 Royal Empire, 17 Voleuse De Coeurs, 19 Simenon, 20 Ibicenco, 21 Verema, 22 Dear Demi, 23 Tres Blue, 24 Ruscello
Lloyd Williams horses: 2 Green Moon, 4 Sea Moon, 10 Fawkner, 11 Mourayan, 12 Seville, 14 Masked Marvel
MORE: Melbourne Cup Day 2013: Race-by-race preview | Melbourne Cup 2013: Horse-by-horse preview
Look for a last-start winner
Eleven of the past 19 Cup winners won at their previous start. That includes three of the last six winners. The three who didn't fit the bill? Again, Bart Cummings and Lloyd Williams. They can turn a horse's form around prior to Cup day. Williams has two last-start winners going around, But all Williams horses should be looked at very, very closely regardless of what the stats say.
Last-start winners: 4 Sea Moon, 10 Fawkner, 17 Voleuse De Coeurs, 20 Ibicenco, 21 Verema, 23 Tres Blue, 24 Ruscello.
Is the Caulfield Cup losing its lustre as a Melbourne Cup guide?
Only one of the past six Melbourne Cup winners has run in the Caulfield Cup. That was Viewed in 2008, and he was unplaced at Caulfield. But treat this stat with some caution, as before that the Caulfield Cup was a hugely reliable guide to Flemington. In the 12 Cups from 1995 to 2006, seven winners had run in the Caulfield Cup. Three won at Caulfield before winning at Flemington. But there's evidence the times may be changing.
Ran in this year's Caulfield Cup: 10 Fawkner (1st), 8 Dandino (2nd), 22 Dear Demi (3rd), 18 Hawkspur (7th), 9 Ethiopia (13th).
Recent Melbourne Cup lead-up trends
The Geelong Cup winner has won three of the past 11 Cups, and two of the past three. Bauer was runner-up by a pimple in 2008. It has become a most important lead-up race. The winner of the Lexus, held on Derby Day, has provided two of the last 13 winners. The most recent was Shocking in 2009. It has also provided recent Cup placegetters Maybe Better (2006) and Maluckyday (2010).
Geelong Cup winner: 20 Ibicenco.
Lexus winner: 24 Ruscello.
Thinking of backing an overseas horse? Look for it to have run in Australia before Cup day
Five horses not trained in Australia or New Zealand have won the Cup. Only Vintage Crop – in bog-like conditions perfect for him in 1993 – did so without a local lead-up run. The four other foreign winners – Media Puzzle, Delta Blues, Americain and Dunaden – all had a loosener in Australia.
Overseas visitors which have had a warm-up run in Australia: 8 Dandino, 19 Simenon, 24 Ruscello.
Foreign jockeys are better bets than you'd think
It used to be said non-Australasian jockeys couldn't win a Melbourne Cup, and you were far better off with a local riding your horse. Recent history shows this is a myth. Of the five foreign winners of the Cup, four had foreign jockeys. Only Damien Oliver's celebrated win on Media Puzzle in 2002 bucked the trend. Mick Kinane, Yasunari Iwata, Gerald Mosse and Christophe Lemaire are all Melbourne Cup-winning jockeys. Three of the past seven winning riders have not been Australasian. And Australian Brett Prebble who won on Green Moon last year, has been based in Hong Kong for the past decade.
Overseas visitors to be ridden by foreign jockeys: 1 Dunaden (Jamie Spencer), 3 Red Cadeaux (Gerald Mosse), 5 Brown Panther (Richard Kingscote), 8 Dandino (Ryan Moore), 19 Simenon (Richard Hughes), 21 Verema (Christophe Lemaire).
Be wary of backing horses which have previously run and failed in a Melbourne Cup
Only one horse in the past 23 years has won a Melbourne Cup after trying and failing previously. That was Brew in 2000. You have to go back to Tawriffic in 1989 for another. So think twice before backing horses which have been found wanting in the Cup before.
Horses which have run previously in a Melbourne Cup without winning: 3 Red Cadeaux, 6 Fiorente, 15 Mount Athos.
Horses with strong Cup-winning profiles
4 Sea Moon: Good recent form, last-start winner, Lloyd Williams-owned.
8 Dandino: Good recent form, Caulfield Cup placegetter, overseas horse with a lead-up run in Australia, overseas horse with a foreign jockey.
10 Fawkner: Good recent form, last-start winner, Lloyd Williams-owned, Caulfield Cup winner.
20 Ibicenco: Good recent form, last-start winner, Geelong Cup winner.
24 Ruscello: Good recent form, last-start winner, Lexus winner, overseas horse with a lead-up run in Australia.