Race 1 - 7News Stakes 1000m - 10:20am
The Money: The support for unraced filly Top Dolly has been very strong, and after opening $4.50, she is now into $3. Oakleigh Girl ($7 into $6) is another well supported youngster, while Italian Storm ($4.50 out to $6) has drifted.
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The Bet: There is more than a degree of randomness about this race, given a big field of two-year-olds down the Flemington straight with just two race starts between them. I would urge restraint this early in the piece, but if you have to bet, stick with the percentages and back David Hayes' two chances Kristofferson and Western Desert each way.
Race 2 - Tab Rewards Trophy 1700m - 11:00am
The Money: Not a lot of confidence in the market for this race, with Endless Shadow shortening into $7.50, Notice Received from $12 into $9 and favourite Wistful hovering around the $4.40 mark a day out from the race. Crimson Lady is the other one in single figures at $9.
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The Bet: This is a tough wide open mares race, with plenty of variables and plenty of formlines. It is not an easy race in which to pick a winner. Crimson Lady looks decent value at $9. Her last run was pretty good and she gets a good barrier and a good jockey.
Race 3 - Carnival Handicap 2800m - 11:45am
The Money: Opinion, whose debut run in Australia left punters a little flat, is a fairly strong favourite in this at the $4 mark. European galloper Caravan Rolls On and the favourite's stablemate Junoob are the other horses in single figures.
The Bet: Another wide open race outside of the favourite, who should improve off his first-up run but it is the stablemate Thubiaan which takes the eye. Has great Flemington form having won over this course and distance in May and while his recent Sydney form is uninspiring, gets back to where he does his best racing. The $15 looks appealing.
Race 4 - Lavazza Short Black 1400m - 12:30pm
The Money: Arinosa ($3.20) was always going to start favourite in this race but the market has yo-yo'd. Koonoomoo has been backed form $10 into $8.50, while those who backed Assertive Eagle last start are obviously keen to redeem themselves, buttering up again by backing the Adelaide visitor from $7.50 into $6.50.
The Bet: Arinosa drops back from a Group One sprint to a Group Three 1400m race and only carries 58.5kg on a track and distance she has prevailed on before. She is not going to be flash odds, but she has a massive class edge on the rest of these and should just win.
Race 5 - Schweppes #flemingtonfling 1000m - 1:15pm - UPDATED
The Money: With the scratching of Lord of the Sky, the market has changed significantly. Kuroshio and Iconic share favourtisim, while Selectify and Diamond Oasis have been supported.
The Bet: Kuroshio ran third in the Schillaci Stakes last start and drops back significantly in class. While he must carry the 59.5kg, he is clearly the highest class horse in the race and has pace to burn over the 1000m. $5 seems very generous odds for him.
Race 6 - Lexus Hybrid Plate 1400m - 2:00pm
The Money: The Peter Snowden trained Moderate has shortened from $2.25 into $2.15 with Sportsbet, while Politeness has also met with support ($3.50 into $3.30). Roop All ($10) is also given a chance.
The Bet: Patricia Dawn has got out to very nice odds ($26) despite her excellent run at Caulfield last start. The way she finished off that race would suggest the Flemington 1400m should hold no concerns and she is very good odds.
Race 7 - Emirates Melbourne Cup 3200m - 3:00pm
The Fav: Fiorente is set to start favourite off the back of his solid lead-up form and the fact he has drawn ideally in barrier five. He is currently $7. Mount Athos has drifted out to $10 after drawing a difficult alley in 22.
The Query: This is the most even Melbourne Cup in recent memory, with the European and local formilines very hard to compare. The pace should be consistent without being breakneck, but as opposed to previous years there doesn't seem to be too many slow Europeans, which means that it will be ultra competitive when the moves need to be made. Pretty much every runner has a historical reason why it can't win. There are those who have never gone the distance before, those who will struggle on the hard ground and those who will have to overcome a wide barrier. Luck in running is the single biggest factor in who wins this race.
The Money: Most of the betting moves have been for longer priced runners, Green Moon, Red Cadeaux, Sea Moon, Brown Panther, Foreteller, Fawkner, Seville, Super Cool, Royal Empire, Simenon, Ibicenco and Dear Demi have all shortened from their opening quotes over the past couple of days.
The Value: Green Moon will have to re-write some history to win this race, but he is in very good shape, gets a good barrier and won last year's race so comfortably that you can't help but think he could do it again. Dear Demi's $19 is also extremely generous given her lead-up form.
The Bet: This is the hardest Melbourne Cup to pick a winner in many, many years, with 19 of the 24 horses rated $41 or under. On exposed form this spring, you can't go past Fiorente. He was excellent in the Cox Plate and clearly stretches out to the two miles given his run here last year. Stays at a good weight (55kg), gets a good barrier and has a gun jockey.
Race 8 - Visit Victoria Plate 1800m - 3:55pm
The Money: Former European galloper Salon Soldier has been heavily supported in this race off the back of his recent Randwick win. After initially opening at $3, he is now $2.30 and could be even shorter by race day. There has also been support for Rain Drum ($3.60) and Pelicano ($13 into $12).
The Bet: Rain Drum ran a very good race first-up at Moonee Valley and should improve greatly off that experience. Gets an inside barrier, the services of Nash Rawiller and is ready to win if left to set his own pace in front.
Race 9 - Mss Security Sprint 1200m - 4:35pm
The Money: In an open race, Pago Rock ($6) is favourite with Avoid Lightning and Ready To Rip both shortening into single figures. There has been a substantial longer price move for Amaethon, who came up $21 and is now into $12, while Go The Knuckle has also been supported.
The Bet: Amaethon was scratched on Saturday for this race and gets conditions very much to suit. Has shown a great deal in trials and loves racing first-up. The double figures odds represent terrific value.
Race 10 - Emirates Airline Plate 1400m - 5:15pm
The Money: In yet another open race, the scratching Henwood sees Lampedusa and Swipeline contest favouritism. Felidea, Stratigraphy and Bradman have all shortened.
The Bet: Bradman could be ready to produce a good second-up run in this race. He has strong form in these circumstances and is very nice odds for a horse of his quality.