Manikato Stakes Preview - Sam's time to shine

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R8 - Group One Manikato Stakes (1200m) - 10:00pm

The Fav: Samaready was always going to start favourite for this race off her ultra impressive win in the Moir Stakes over this course and distance two weeks ago. While as much as $2.80 has been offered on her winning the race this week, she is $2.50 on race eve and likely to draw more support on raceday. A highly-talented two-year-old who ran third in a Golden Slipper, she had just one start as a three-year-old because of injury but has returned to the track with two wins.

The Query: Lucky Nine bring an international flavour to this race after a highly successful career in Hong Kong. His most recent win was in the International Sprint in Hong Kong, where he beat Bel Sprinter, who also runs in this race, by three lengths. There are queries over how he will handle the tight turning Moonee Valley track plus over how wound-up he will be considering he has never won first-up and has another major spring goal in the Patinack Stakes in two weeks' time.

Shamexpress is another query runner, with the Newmarket Handicap winner returning from a trip to the UK, where he failed to flatter in two runs. We also have Rebel Dane, coming back from a Group One victory over 1400m, Diamond Earth, a developing Sydney sprinter with a win at this course under her belt and grey mare Arinosa, who was much improved in the Sydney autumn.

The Money: There has been a fir bit of confidence about Samaready in this race, and she is now at a fairly short quote. Much of the money for Lucky Nine came last week and he seems steady at around the $8 mark, while Buffering has been solid at the $6 mark. Rebel Dane has met with reasonable support at longer odds.

The Value: Arinosa will need considerable speed on if she is going to be a factor in the race, but she gets a logical cart up behind Samaready and could get last shot at these. She is around the $11 mark and seems in excellent form after her barnstorming win last start. If you think Samaready can win, then you must concede that Arinosa could be her greatest threat.

The Bet: Samaready gets very similar conditions to what she had four weeks ago when she blitzed a few in this field by a big space. It would seem that Buffering, Bel Sprinter, Moment of Change and Le Bonsir would be unlikely to turn that result around. Lucky Nine is the wildcard, but given the nature of the track and the fact he has failed to win first-up, you'd be happy to risk him. It leaves the favourite as the clear logical pick even if the odds are a little stifling. If she does what she did in the Moir, then it should be money in the bank.

The rest of the meeting:
The Money: A notable early market shortener was Queenstown in Race 6 ($3.70 into $3.50).

The Value: Montsegur looks the class runner of Race 4 and is currently around the $7 mark, which seems rather generous. Alrouz, who runs in Race 7, is a horse with a terrific Moonee Valley record who is sure to give you a run for your money at around $11.

The Bet: She's a classy filly with a cracking name and Scratchy Bottom could prove too hard to resist for punters in the third race. Her first start win was brilliantly impressive and she will take natural improvement into a race where he main rival has already had a long tough campaign. The $4.50 looks great value.

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