'Odds-on, look on', or 'better than back interest', which punting adage do you apply to Saturday's Futurity Stakes (1600m) at Caulfield?
Typhoon Tracy is currently around $1.60 which may seem reasonable odds considering she will only have five rivals for yet another Group One success.
But there is a theory in racing which has a lot of evidence to back it up, that backing short-priced favourites in small fields is dicing with disaster.
Weight-for-age racing is generally very much driven by tempo and the fact Typhoon Tracy is likely to sit either on the speed or second to it is why punters have been so keen to get on.
But here's the knock on the $1.60 on offer.
Firstly, she is second-up over 1600m, and she was beaten at the mile second-up (albeit narrowly) last campaign.
Secondly, while she won the Orr at her last start easily, the horses she beat, Heart of Dreams and Sirmione, failed to flatter in the St George Stakes last week.
While on paper she should get a cosy run, she has drawn the outside barrier meaning if Joku pushes up and Sniper's Bullet takes a sit behind, she may be forced to face the breeze.
Sniper's Bullet's form in its past three starts is arguably equal to that of the favourite and it may have the last shot at her.
There is also the unknown quality of Dao Dao, a proven mile performer in Hong Kong, who comes to Melbourne for the first time.
His run on a bog track at Rosehill last start was great and he boasts three wins and a second from four starts second-up.
He also boasts four wins and a third from five starts over the mile.
This race is the first leg of the Asian Mile Challenge and Dao Dao is the only horse in this race who is likely to take on the other legs in Hong Kong, Dubai and Japan.
The Hawkes team will have him ready for this race and he could provide the upset.
Elsewhere on the card we have an intriguing two-year-old race, the Chairman's Stakes where a couple of the vanquished from the Blue Diamond will be looking for redemption.
However, the winner could come from outside that brigade.
Bedhrah is an impeccably-bred filly who won impressively in her first start at Mornington.
She wasn't given many favours second-up at Sandown and could improve with an inside barrier and Dwayne Dunn on board.
What's even better is that she is currently $26!
There's some handy two-year-olds fronting up in the Silver Slipper at Rosehill as well, with Chance Bye rated a $2.50 chance to strengthen her unbeaten stretch to three.
Take that on, and put your hard earned on Run for Wilson (No.1) at the healthy double-figure odds.
The Hobartville (1400m) is the other main race and if you want to take the $2.60 about Manhattan Rain you may need to see a doctor.
Four of his 12 rivals beat him home comfortably last start and he clearly needs to step up over more ground to be competitive, even against his own age.
Have a go at Gai's other contender Viking Hero at $11 and get more value for money.
In summary,
Caulfield R7, No.2 Dao Dao
Caulfield R4, No .11 Bedhrah (EW)
Rosehill R5, No.1 Run for Wilson (EW)
Rosehill R6 No.5 Viking Legend (EW)
Good luck!