Rival trainers Wayne Hawkes and Gai Waterhouse are convinced their three-year-olds will fight out the finish of Saturday's $3 million Cox Plate at Moonee Valley despite the overall poor record of young horses in the race.
Since Surround became the only three-year-old filly to win Australia's weight-for-age championship in 1976 - just four three-year-old horses have prevailed in the Cox Plate - Red Anchor in 1984, Octagonal in 1995, Savabeel in 2004 and So You Think in 2009.
However this year sees the strongest crop of three-year-olds since a record five contested the 1992 race.
Wayne Hawkes will saddle up Caulfield Guineas winner All Too Hard in the Cox Plate while Waterhouse supplies other two three-year-olds in the race in favourite Pierro - who was unbeaten before suffering a shock loss to All Too Hard in the Caulfield Guineas - and the promising Proisir, who was runner-up in the Group One Spring Champion Stakes over 2000m at Randwick at his last start.
And both trainers certainly know what it takes to win the Cox Plate as a three-year-old with Hawkes' father John winning with Octagonal in 1995 while Waterhouse's father Tommy Smith trained Red Anchor to victory in 1984.
"The three-year-olds are a special group this year," Waterhouse said at Tuesday's barrier draw.
"They are all really above average and they have got the weight advantage over the older horses."
Under the weight-for-age conditions of the race, the three young horses will all carry just 49.5kg.
In contrast the three other leading contenders in Waterhouse's experienced mare More Joyous will carry 57kg while exciting four-year-old Kiwi galloper Ocean Park will carry 57.5kg and Lloyd Williams' six-year-old stallion Green Moon will carry 59kg.
The six horses are dominating betting at sportsbet.com.au with Pierro favourite, after drawing ideally in barrier seven, at $3.70 ahead of Green Moon at $5, Ocean Park at $5.50, Proisir at $8.50 and More Joyous and All Too Hard both at $10 with the other eight runners all priced at $21 or above.
All Too Hard will be attempting to shrug off the curse of Caulfield Guineas winners in the Cox Plate with the past 14 Guineas winners that have contested the race all having been beaten.
However Hawkes confidence rose after All Too Hard drew barrier three.
"In the Cox Plate they normally take off (for the winning post) at the half mile (800m out)," he said.
Hawkes believed that would give All Too Hard the chance to finish over the top of his rivals - as he did in the Caulfield Guineas when he ran down Pierro in the closing stages coming off a fast run race.
In contrast Hawkes said All Too Hard's disappointing defeats in Sydney earlier in the spring were a result of those races being 'sit and sprint' affairs.
But he believes Saturday's Cox Plate could well be a repeat of the epic Caulfield Guineas finish between All Too Hard and Pierro and scoffed at suggestions the pair may struggle to back up after that tough run.
"Imagine if Pierro and All Too Hard hit the front again with 200 metres to go," he said.
"They are already both really good horses but if one of them wins on Saturday then they really go to that elite level."
"I know everyone says they had a hard run in the Guineas but Gai has Pierro spot-on and we wouldn't be running our bloke in the race unless he was 100 percent ready to go.'
However Nick Williams - stable representative for his father Lloyd who owns second favourite Green Moon - said the three-year-olds are yet to prove they can beat the older horses.
"Apart from All Too Hard in the George Main Stakes (when he ran fourth of eight horses behind another Cox Plate entrant in Shoot Out) these three-year-olds haven't raced against the older horses," he said.
"So no-one really knows how good this crop of three-year-olds really are."