The Championships: Betting Guide - Day One

Terravista

NOTE: Updated after scratchings and with new times for Easter Monday.

What's great about a raceday like The Championships is that you get decent prices about superstar horses.

Trick is we've just got to find the right ones among a host of high-class animals doing their best at what's likely to be a rain-affected Randwick.

Also, watch closely the race pattern on the day as wet days at Randwick tend to make for no-go areas in some parts of the track. It could mean wide barrier draws are not as important as they may appear.

Plenty of races I want to be having a shot at, including the Doncaster, Sires Produce and Derby.

Sportsbet also have a brilliant special for races one to four at Randwick. They'll give you money back on your first win bet up to $100 if you finish second or third. Gotta love that.

Here's our tips, and with all updated information for Easter Monday.

All times AEDT.

 

SATURDAY

1.00pm Caulfield Race 2

Bill Collins Handicap (3yo) 1000m

BET: 3 Forgive And Forget - Always had a bit of time for this horse, and this is the weakest race he's contested in a while. Goes into this first-up, and probably his best career run was at Caulfield last Spring when he handled the track well finishing fourth in a high-quality Group 3. Speculative bet, but could get to enticing odds. UNPLACED

DANGER: 2 Husson Eagle - There's been a bit of a wrap around about this bloke for a while, and he was only 5L off Brazen Beau at Group 1 level last Spring. Drops to a very winnable race here, and it's his first run since having his love tackle chopped off. Now he's got no nuts, he could go nuts. WON $3.70

 

4.50pm Caulfield Race 8

Victoria Handicap (Group 3) 1400m

BET: 5 Watermans Bay - Reckon all three West Australian horses are the ones to beat here, and there isn't much between them. Watermans Bay gets the nod on odds and the fact he's got race fitness on his side. Placed twice in Perth's premier Group 1 sprint the Winterbottom Stakes, and meets Amorino, who's been racing well here, well at the weights. WON $19.00

DANGER: 10 Disposition - Class three-year-old who was beaten not far by subsequent Australian Guineas winner Wandjina last start. But hasn't raced for 42 days, so not sure what sort of nick he'll present in to take on the older horses. UNPLACED

NOTE: The other West Aussie engaged 3 Amorino is flying with two wins in a row, and is worth including in multiples.

 

MONDAY

11.25am Randwick Race 1

Kindergarten Stakes (Group 3 2yo) 1200m

BET: 3 Sooboog - Beaten odds-on favourite in only start behind Golden Slipper winner Vancouver. Still looked decent that day, and now we know how good Vancouver is. His two trials leading into this race have been rippers. Unlike his first start when he began averagely, he jumped like someone poked him with a red-hot stick out of the barriers winning his last trial. My gut feel is he's a really, really good horse. Horses by his sire Snitzel usually handle the wet if the umbrellas are out Saturday.

DANGER: 1 Furnaces - Good run Golden Slipper but pressure told late and he faded. Will run well in weaker grade here, and a quinella with Sooboog looks well worth having.

 

 

2.25pm Randwick Race 6

AJC Sires Produce Stakes (Group 1 2yo) 1400m

BET: 1 Pride Of Dubai - We've seen two exceptional performances from two-year-olds this season in the two biggest races. Vancouver winning from his barrier in the Golden Slipper was extraordinary. But perhaps just as good was this bloke's Blue Diamond win, when he was spreadeagled at the 300m with a tackle reminiscent of Les Boyd's best work in the 80s, picked himself up, and finished strongly to win. He is among the top handful of two-year-olds we've seen, and his stable purposely missed the Golden Slipper where he'd surely have been a big chance to aim at this. I'm trusting they know what they're doing, and he'll be damn hard to beat.

DANGER: 9 Always Allison - Another who dodged the Golden Slipper for this race. Drawn wide, but Brazilian wonder jockey Joao Moreira has a 50% strike rate teaming with trainer Chris Waller, and his magic hands should make up for the poor barrier. Breeding suggests wet won't be a problem.

 

3.00pm Randwick Race 7

Australian Derby (Group 1 3yo Colts and Geldings) 2400m

BET: 3 Mongolian Khan - Cricket World Cup aside, the Kiwis are on top in sport right now. Thinking the Derby is another one bound for New Zealand, with their two runners holding the key. Mongolian Khan was beaten last time out, but previously won the NZ Derby over this distance at Group 1. He's won 6 from 8, he's 3 from 3 at distances 2100m and over, and clearly is a quality stayer.

DANGER: 2 Volkstok'n'Barrell  - Beat Mongolian Khan and others at 2000m last start, but gut feel is he's a mile and a quarter horse and 2400m tests him right out. Think he and his Kiwi mate have the wood on the Aussies. And they like the wet too.

 

3.40pm Randwick Race 8

T.J Smith Stakes (Group 1) 1200m

BET: 2 Terravista - Today's rival Chautauqua finished ahead of him in a high quality Newmarket a fortnight ago. But back on his home turf, he looks the horse who'll take most improvement from the first-up run. Beat both his main rivals last Spring, and proven in wet conditions.

DANGER: 1 Lankan Rupee - Won this race last year in unforgettable style. Just wasn't himself when failed behind Brazen Beau, Chautauqua and Terravista last start. Forgive and go on his exceptional smashing of Deep Field the previous start.

 

 

4.20pm Randwick Race 9

Doncaster Mile (Group 1) 1600m

BET: 19 Suavito - In a race with a squillion chances and form coming from everywhere, going for a horse at decent odds who just keeps raising the bar. Suavito has won four in a row now, and has been dominant in her two wins this time in weight-for-age in Melbourne. She drops 7kg on bashing Dissident's head in at Group 1 and beating subsequent winner Kourkam at Group 2, to 50kg here. Yes, she's failed at her only two goes the Sydney way, and failed at both goes on very wet tracks. But all were unsuitable races, and she wasn't in anywhere near the form she's in now. Believing what I'm seeing, and that's good enough to win a really tough race like this.

DANGER: 10 Hallowed Crown - Probably would have been top pick if he'd drawn a decent gate. But given his barrier is closer to the Eastern Distributor than Randwick's course proper, he'll need every ounce of luck. He's unbeaten in four goes in rain-affected going, is a dual Group 1 winner, and is best of the current three-year-olds. Can win despite the barrier, but will need it all to go perfectly.

NOTE: Both three-year-olds at the bottom of the weights - 21 Sweynesse and 22 Kermadec - have this morning made the final field after their stables scratched other horses to ensure their place. That means they should absolutely be included in multiples and are clearly going well enough to win.

 

5.00pm Randwick Race 10

Adrian Knox Stakes (Group 3 3yo Fillies) 2000m

BET: 3 Maastricht - This looks exactly the sort of race she can win. While she always looms up to look like winning but doesn't seem to quite go on with it, this will be the first time this preparation she's been up against fillies, and not males. All her runs this preparation have been decent, and she's won on wet ground. Importantly, she can lead, race just off the pace or back in the field. Hopefully she stops teasing, and starts pleasing.

DANGER: 11 Gust Of Wind - Her first-up win at Scone over 1400m in February became a YouTube sensation.  She was 15 lengths off the leader and hard ridden after 400m, and with 200m to go was still last in the big field. She won. Then she won her next start at Hawkesbury, finding what she needed. Huge step up in class, but she's a winner, and she does what good horses do which is find the line just in time. Odds are enticing, and her trainer John Sargent has produced Kirramosa and Thunder Lady in the past two years from nowhere to be staying classic contenders.

  

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