Oaks Day preview and betting guide

Fontein Ruby

Thursday is Oaks day at Flemington, and it's enough to revive even the most punted-out of horse racing bettors to go again after Derby Day and Melbourne Cup day.

The VRC Oaks is a great race. Winners fall into two categories.

Either the best filly of the current crop - think Miss Finland, Samantha Miss, Special Harmony or Mosheen,

Or the best staying filly - Faint Perfume, Dear Demi or Kirramosa last year.

Our tips keep this in mind.

Good luck, and may the horse be with you!

12.15pm Flemington Race 1

7News Plate (Fillies and Mares BM70) 1700m

BET:  8 Navajo Run

Fancied this in a far harder race on Tuesday when she was scratched, and really think she'll be hard to beat here. Her first-up run at Sandown was super when she had to go back from a wide barrier and flew late. Then she raced on-pace last start and just faded for second. She's Group 3 placed and ran a really good race in a Group 1 behind May's Dream and Star Fashion last prep. Like to see her up on the pace again, and think she'll take some running down if she is.

NEXT BEST: 10 Postnthyme - former Kiwi who has been OK at three Australian starts, and definitely worth an each-way bet or including in multiples.

 

3.35pm Flemington Race 6

G.H Mumm Stakes (Group 3) 1100m

BET: 5 Bounding

Group 1 winning New Zealand mare with imposing record. Chased home Chautauqua down straight in bravely two starts back, before failing when everything went wrong in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes. It was the first time in 13 starts she hadn't won or finished 2nd. And she still wasn't beaten far by Lankan Rupee and far superior horses to what she meets here, so happy to forgive that and go again. Back at Flemington where she's proven, and will take a power of beating.

NEXT BEST: 4 Shamal Wind - if it doesn't work out for Bounding, this mare will be motoring home late. Excellent Flemington record, and has won and finished second in races on Oaks Day in past two years. Clearly enjoys Ladies Day.

 

Flemington Race 8

5.00pm Crown Oaks (Group 1) 2500m

BET: 1 Fontein Ruby

Banking on a horse who's been good to us during the Spring Carnival bouncing back from a disappointing run last Saturday. Had to work hard early, and was in wrong part of track when leading on a windy Derby Day. Prepared to forgive that and go on previous run when she was headed, eyeballed the male galloper passing her, and fought back bravely to win. Distance a big query, but you get double-figure odds to get the question answered.

NEXT BEST: 3 Crafty - has had the perfect Oaks preparation, and shapes as if distance will be no problem.

 

 

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