Memsie Stakes betting guide

Green Moon

For Rosehill, expect a track wetter than an Ice Bucket Challenge. For Caulfield, a dry track -  which can mean a leader bias. We've allowed for this with our tips.

Five races, including the Group 1 Memsie Stakes, make up our first betting guide of the new season. (All times AEST).

2.25pm Rosehill Race 4

Cellarbrations Handicap (Fillies and Mares BM80) 1100m

BET: 4 Maysoon. She went up $11 with one bookie early. Trust me, I haven't been that quick off the mark for a lady since I first spied my lovely wife. Maysoon built a nice career record early, then struggled last two before a spell, though one was chasing home top-liner Cosmic Endeavour. My theory is she'd had enough after racing for a long time. Her first-up run against males was very promising. Really like her back against her own gender. Taylor Marshall's 3kg claim brings Maysoon in with an enticing 55kg.

NEXT BEST: 10 Runway Star - terrific a fortnight ago off four-week freshen and wide barrier. Will be fitter, and has better barrier.

2.45pm Caulfield Race 5

Theshark.com.au Handicap (Group 3) 1100m

BET: 1 Flamberge.  Classy and underrated. Is two wins from three first-up. The miss was in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate, when fifth to Lankan Rupee. Then beaten 4.8 lengths by Lankan Rupee in the Newmarket and was awesome and brave winning a Sydney Group 3 before his spell. 

NEXT BEST:

2 Richie's Vibe - Group 2 and weight-for-age winner. Stepped up last prep. Gets back so will need luck, but will be flying late. Has trialled well

6 Hard Stride - iron horse. Very good last start beating triple Group 1 winner Moment Of Change on merit

5 Pago Rock - four career wins at Caulfield, three at this distance. Five wins from seven first-up

3.05pm Rosehill Race 5

TAB Quaddie Handicap (BM95) 1500m

BET: 3 Hooked. Massive when fourth to Entirely Platinum last start - the only horse to make ground when those on-pace dominated. Group 1 placed and has raced bravely in top class most of his career. Reckon he's a miler rather than a stayer and this distance will suit. His owner Nathan Tinkler this week signalled his intent to sell all his racing interests. Which is usually when the horse racing gods step in and make you pay again. 

NEXT BEST: 1 Kirramosa - Group 1 winning mare being asked to carry plenty of weight. Nice run first-up and clear danger.

3.45pm Rosehill Race 6

Run To the Rose (Group 3) 1100m

BET: 5 Hallowed Crown. There will be plenty of hype around Gai Waterhouse's Almalad here. Do respect the horse, but hype horses rarely offer value. Hallowed Crown does, though. Unbeaten in two starts and has looked super both times. Beat Washington Heights at Group 3 level in wet last time out. Beat Panzer Division in a recent trial, who was beaten an eyelash in that dubious photo in the Up And Coming Stakes last week. Really rate this bloke, and he could be Bart Cummings' highlight horse this Spring.

NEXT BEST:

4 Nostradamus - super win last start and has fitness on most of these

1 Almalad - could be anything and certainly could win. But prepared to take better odds Hallowed Crown

4.40pm Caulfield Race 8

Memsie Stakes (Group 1) 1400m

BET: 2 Boban and 3 Moment Of Change

Boban didn't quite get it together last prep but still won a Group 1. Last spring he was sensational and I wrote here he could be 2014's weight for age star and Cox Plate horse. Note he is three from seven running the Melbourne way. Two of his failures were when he was a young horse, and nuttier than a Snickers. Good run first-up in Sydney. Around $5 with bookmakers. I'd want a bit better, and think you might get it on the day.

Moment Of Change the obvious danger - class galloper at his best at 1400m and a triple Group 1 winner. Think he'll be enticing odds to begin with, then firm as logic takes hold.

Back both gallopers at top fluctuation and make a profit if either wins. Use the pair as key horses in your multiples.

Good punting, and may the horse be with you!

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