How it happened: Victoria Derby

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16:9. Horse Racing. Live Coverage
Live Blog Live Coverage: Victoria Derby

Here's our suggested bets. All times AEDT

11.30am Flemington Race 1

Carbine Club Stakes (Group 3) 1600m

BET: 1 Our Vespa

A Kiwi galloper who's had no luck in Australia…yet. First he copped a beating at Caulfield where he should have finished much closer to Rich Enuff. Then a sore tooth forced him out of the Caulfield Guineas. My understanding is he worked really strongly during the week, and Craig Williams climbs aboard. He's a Group 1 winner in NZ. He's the only Group 1 winner in this field, with double-figure odds on offer.

NEXT BEST: 15 Azkadellia - Racehorses don’t come with 4WD, as jockey Michelle Payne found last start when she had more backside to work around than Kim Kardashian's stylist. But the market has over-corrected because of her obvious bad luck last time, and she's way too short for mine. Definitely can win, however, and Brazilian super-jockey Joao Moreira is a big upgrade.

 

12.10pm Flemington Race 2

Wakeful Stakes (Group 2) 2000m

BET: 1 Fontein Ruby

She just keeps winning. Super at her past two, and loved her win against the males last start. She was headed at the 300m, then turned her head to the side, eyeballed the horse going past her, and said you're not getting past me. Won four of her past five. Won at the track. Won at the distance. Won at this level. Gives her all. My kind of woman. 

NEXT BEST: 5 Muscovado - really brave win last start when she led and just kept going to beat males, albeit in a weaker race than this. But the style of the win was very good and keeps her under notice here.

 

1.30pm Flemington Race 4

Coolmore Stud Stakes (Group 1) 1200m

BET: 1 Rich Enuff

Brilliant in all three runs this Spring, and for mine the best three-year-old sprinter in the country. Narrowly beaten in Caulfield Guineas last start, but brave. Drop in distance is ideal, as is going to a track he won at three starts ago like a star. Let's hope we're living up to his name by this point of the day.

NEXT BEST: 14 Earthquake - narrow win last start was better than it looked, and has beaten a lot of these. Gets huge weight drop, and Flemington straight will suit her.

 

3.20pm Rosehill Race 5

CFMEU Handicap (BM80) 1200m

BET: 9 Exceleine

Won a decent form race first-up. Then she was excellent in a far tougher race last start when she did all the hard work out in front, and was only run down late by quality mares. There's no Avoid Lightning in this race, and she carries featherweight and in-form jockey Winona Costin. So expect Exceleine to get on-pace and give them all something to chase.

NEXT BEST: 2 Commanding Wit - good in the same race as Exceleine last time and clear next pick. If one can get past the leader, it's her.

 

3.45pm Flemington Race 7

Victoria Derby (Group 1) 2500m

BET: 1 Hampton Court

Beat two of the best three-year-olds in the country fair and square last time out in Sydney. One of those, Sweynesse, went on to run well in the Cox Plate. Deserved favourite, and should win given right run and if he copes with distance.

NEXT BEST: 11 Atmosphere - hasn’t won a race yet but has been really good last two, and shapes as if 2500m is his go.

 

4.30pm Flemington Race 8

Myer Classic (Group 1) 1600m

BET: 13 Star Fashion

Vastly underrated mare who is Group 1 placed and been in super form. She's won both starts since a spell in style and comes out of strong form races. Mile is perfect, and she keeps winning. And surely the omen tip considering the importance of frocks and suits over the Spring Carnival. Definitely say yes to this dress.

NEXT BEST: 10 Girl Guide - wide barrier to contend with and untried at distance and at Group 1 level. But she's a high-quality mare who has never missed a place in 10 runs. Huge run last start when flew and nearly won, and Craig Williams back aboard.

 

5.15pm Flemington Race 9

Tab.com.au Stakes (Group 2) 1200m

BET: 4 In Cahoots (place)

Very consistent galloper who won well last start. Note he should pay around double the price for the place that Deep Field pays for the win. Well worth backing place only.

WATCH: 6 Deep Field

Australia, it's time to meet a potential superstar, and maybe the best sprinter in the land. In Sydney, Deep Field has been winning by big margins, in quick times. This is his biggest test yet, but no horse has managed to get within three lengths of him in his four wins to date. He just has a really high cruising speed, and when a horse gets close, he shifts gear. Very short odds though, so just watch unless you're anchoring a quaddie with him.

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