Finding the Melbourne Cup winner

590. 2013 Melbourne Cup winner Fiorente

Profiling. It's used for so many things in modern life - from businesses searching for would-be customers to police identifying criminals, 

So what about trying to find the profile of a Melbourne Cup winner?

You'll hear and read a lot of dumbed-down info about certain numbers winning more often than others, or barriers which haven't provided a winner, or the most prominent colours worn by winners. And don't get me bloody started on astrology as a guide.

But there is so much far more useful information around about the 24 horses in Tuesday's big race.

Here's a look at some history, trends and statistics which may give you a leg-up on picking a Melbourne Cup winner.


James Cummings, grandson of Bart with Precedence. Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images

Good recent form is critical. Except when it's Bart Cummings or Lloyd Williams

Of the past 20 winners, only five have been unplaced at their lead-up run to the Cup.

Of those, Jezabeel should have won instead of finishing sixth in the roughest Caulfield Cup in history. Makybe Diva was fourth in the Caulfield Cup and probably should have run a place prior to winning her first Melbourne Cup.

The other three? The great Bart Cummings trained Viewed, and Lloyd Williams owned Efficient and Green Moon.

Cummings now trains in partnership with grandson James, but you'd be tipping the time-honoured methods haven't changed all that much. So if anyone can turn Precedence's recent form around, it's Bart. He's done it many times before on raceday.

For the Williams horses, look for Robert Hickmott as trainer in your form guide. Lloyd targets the Melbourne Cup, Caulfield Cup or Cox Plate with all his horses. He knows what he's doing.

Note also that if you are looking for a horse this year that should have run a place - like outliers Jezabeel or Maykbe Diva - German visitor Protectionist should have nearly won the Herbert Power Stakes at his last run, rather than finish a narrow fourth.

Horses placed at their Cup lead-up run: 1 Admire Rakti, 3 Fawkner, 10 Gatewood, 11 Mutual Regard, 18 Au Revoir, 22 Lucia Valentina, 24 Signoff

Horses which should have placed: 5 Protectionist

Lloyd Williams owns: 3 Fawkner, 6 Sea Moon

Bart Cummings trains: 15 Precedence


Admire Rakti from Japan gallops during a trackwork session at Werribee Racecourse. Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images

Last-start winners have a great record

Twelve of the past 21 Cup winners won at their previous start.

That includes three of the past five winners.

Interestingly, there are only three last-start winners in this year's field, one of the lowest tallies for many years.

Last-start winners: 1 Admire Rakti, 11 Mutual Regard, 24 Signoff


Lucia Valentina gallops on the course proper during a trackwork session at Caulfield. Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images

Is the Caulfield Cup still a strong Melbourne Cup guide?

Only one of the past seven Melbourne Cup winners has run in the Caulfield Cup.

That was Viewed in 2008, and he was unplaced at Caulfield.

But treat this stat with some caution, as before that the Caulfield Cup was a hugely reliable guide to Flemington.

In the 12 Cups from 1995 to 2006, seven winners had run in the Caulfield Cup. Three of those won at Caulfield before winning at Flemington. 

Ran in this year's Caulfield Cup: 1 Admire Rakti (1st), 22 Lucia Valentina (3rd), 16 Brambles (4th), 21 Araldo (5th), 19 Lidari (6th), 8 Junoob (7th), 12 Whoshotthebarman (13th), 7 Seismos (15th), 23 Unchain My Heart (17th), 6 Sea Moon (last). 

 

Recent Melbourne Cup lead-up trends

The Cox Plate and Geelong Cup have provided the last four Cup winners.

But this year's Geelong Cup winner Caravan Rolls On hasn’t made the field.

The past two Melbourne Cup winners Fiorente and Green Moon were beaten in the Cox Plate before winning the Cup.

It points to Fawkner, the only Cox Plate runner backing up in the Melbourne Cup, having a great chance.

Cox Plate runner in the Cup: 3 Fawkner (2nd)


Protectionist from the stable of Andreas Wohler in Germany during a trackwork session at Werribee Racecourse. Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images

Thinking of backing an overseas horse? Look for it to have run in Australia before Cup day

Five horses not trained in Australia or New Zealand have won the Cup.

Only Vintage Crop – in bog-like conditions perfect for him in 1993 – did so without a local lead-up run. The four other foreign winners – Media Puzzle, Delta Blues, Americain and Dunaden – all had a loosener in Australia. That is a stat well worth bearing in mind.

Overseas visitors which have had a warm-up run in Australia: 1 Admire Rakti, 5 Protectionist, 7 Seismos, 18 Au Revoir


French jockey and Melbourne Cup winner Gerald Mosse. Photo by Alan Crowhurst/Getty Images

Foreign jockeys are better bets than you'd think

It used to be said non-Australasian jockeys couldn't win a Melbourne Cup, and you were far better off with a local riding your horse.

Recent history shows this is a myth.

Of the five foreign winners of the Cup, four had foreign jockeys. Only Damien Oliver's celebrated win on Media Puzzle in 2002 bucked the trend.

Mick Kinane, Yasunari Iwata, Gerald Mosse and Christophe Lemaire are all Melbourne Cup-winning jockeys in the modern era.

Three of the past eight winning riders have not been Australasian. And Australian Brett Prebble, who won on Green Moon in 2012, has been based in Hong Kong for the past decade. 

Overseas visitors to be ridden by foreign jockeys: 4 Red Cadeaux (Gerald Mosse), 5 Protectionist (Ryan Moore), 10 Gatewood (William Buick), 14 My Ambivalent (Andrea Atzeni).


Hugh Bowman ridies Sea Moon. Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images

Be a stallion. Win the Cup

Stallions are the most successful type of galloper in Melbourne Cups, winning 64 of them.

Male horses complete with their bits  have also won the past six Cups, so they have a great recent record as well as overall.

Look for the symbol "h" for horse in your form guide next to the galloper's colour, age and breeding to identify a stallion.

It proves that having your tackle intact may make your mind wander off the track. Clearly not so when you need to run a winning two-miles at high speed.

Stallions racing in the Cup: 1 Admire Rakti, 2 Cavalryman, 5 Protectionist, 6 Sea Moon, 10 Gatewood, 18 Au Revoir, 19 Lidari, 21 Araldo


Royal Diamond walks down the straight during a trackwork session at Werribee Racecourse. Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

Weigh to go

Only one horse in the past 19 years has carried more than 56kg to Melbourne Cup victory. That was the incomparable Makybe Diva in her third win.

The last seven Cups have been taken out by a horse carrying 55kg or less.

Horses with 56kg or less: 7 Seismos, 8 Junoob, 9 Royal Diamond, 10 Gatewood, 11 Mutual Regard, 12 Whoshotthebarman, 13 Willing Foe, 14 My Ambivalent, 15 Precedence, 16 Brambles, 17 Mr O'Ceirin, 18 Au Revoir, 19 Lidari, 20 Opinion, 21 Araldo, 22 Lucia Valentina, 23 Unchain My Heart, 24 Signoff


Au Revoir from France during a trackwork session at Werribee Racecourse. Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images

Horses with strong Cup-winning profiles (in saddlecloth order)

1 Admire Rakti - Good recent form, last-start winner, Caulfield Cup winner, overseas visitor with loosener in Australia, stallion

3 Fawkner - Good recent form, Lloyd Williams owns, Cox Plate runner

5 Protectionist - Good recent form** (should have been placed at most recent run), overseas visitor with loosener in Australia, foreign horse with foreign jockey, stallion

18 Au Revoir - Good recent form, overseas visitor with loosener in Australia, stallion, fits weight profile

22 Lucia Valentina - Good recent form, Caulfield Cup placegetter, fits weight profile

 

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