New Zealand trainer Murray Baker remains confident his star colt It's A Dundeel can bounce back from his shock defeat in Saturday's Group Two Vase at Moonee Valley and win Saturday's three-year-old classic the Victoria Derby.
It's A Dundeel is now an easing favourite for Saturday's $1.5 million race, which is the highlight of the opening day of Flemington's famous four day carnival.
The lightly framed Kiwi colt had been unbeaten in his first four runs before going down to Mark Kavanagh's Super Cool in the Vase on Saturday.
However Baker, who trained the 2010 Victoria Derby winner Lion Tamer, believes circumstances conspired against It's A Dundeel on Saturday and has no doubt his horse will be much better suited on the wide expanses of Flemington.
Baker was not making excuses but many believed the small field of just seven runners combined with the slow pace of the race and the tight confines of the Moonee Valley track, conspired against It's A Dundeel.
"He was beaten by a better horse," Baker said.
"But they ran home the last 400m in the Vase in 35.45 seconds while in the Cox Plate (run over the same distance but by more seasoned horses) they ran home in 36.86 seconds."
"So the Vase really was a sit and sprint affair and my bloke just ground to the line."
Baker said It's A Dundeel may have also needed the run after not having raced for three weeks since his brilliant win over Gai Waterhouse's three-year-old Cox Plate runner Proisir in the Group One Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) in Sydney.
"He was maybe a little bit on the fresh side on Saturday," Baker told Melbourne racing radio station RSN.
"And James (jockey James McDonald) got off the horse and said he was looking for more ground."
Baker admitted the surprise defeat would now result in It's A Dundeel having plenty of doubters heading into the Derby, particularly as the small horse has to back up for the longer trip of 2500 metres off just a seven day break.
"However he is a stoutly bred horse and the bigger Flemington track will suit him," he said.
"As long as he is fit and healthy he will get the trip."
Baker said he had seen no signs that It's A Dundeel, who in his first campaign having made his debut in August, was now over the top as far as his spring campaign was concerned.
"He only came into the stable in June and had four races in Sydney (before coming to Melbourne) but to us he still has a spring in his step and is quite bright."