Preview: Cox Plate and Manikato Stakes

Fawkner

   The Cox Plate honour roll reads like a list of great champions of the turf.

   Kingston Town, Gunsynd, Dulcify, Better Loosen Up, Octagonal, Saintly, Northerly, Sunline, Makybe Diva and So You Think all won the Group 1 weight-for-age championship.

   In recent years, there has also been some chaos theory. Shamus Award won as a maiden in 2013, while Pinker Pinker won at any old odds in 2011.

   As the curtain-raiser, Friday night's Manikato Stakes sees most of Australia's best sprinters clash. Too close to call from a punting perspective for mine.

   But we reckon there's a few races across Friday night and Saturday which offer some decent betting opportunities.

   If you're having a punt, we recommend Luxbet's Best of the Best - the best of the three totes or top fluctuation if you win.

   Luxbet also have a Cox Plate offer where you'll get 50% more than other bookmakers if you pick the winner.

   Good luck, and may the horse be with you!

   All times AEDT.

    

   Friday night

   8.15pm Moonee Valley Race 4

   Chandler Macleod Crockett Stakes (Listed) 1200m

   BET: 2 Tawteen

   Tawteen has been excellent all campaign. She was really brave when she led a hot three-year-old fillies race, only to be run down and just beaten by Earthquake last start. That is great form for this. She flies, gives her all, and challenges those chasing to run her down. And she's won around the Valley before, so there's lots to like.

   NEXT BEST: 1 London Lolly - first glimpse of form this campaign was in the Earthquake-Tawteen race after a freshen. If she's back to best, watch out.

 

   10.15pm Moonee Valley Race 8

   City Jeep Handicap (Open) 2040m

   BET: 6 Pheidon

   His last two runs in Sydney have been super - the latest just behind the placegetters in the Group 1 Epsom. Both times he's led, given plenty of cheek, and been swamped late. He'll find this a hell of a lot easier than having Lucia Valentina, He's Your Man, Tiger Tees and Royal Descent breathing down his neck in recent starts. Note he's also proven at the Valley - having won a Group 2 race at track and distance.

   NEXT BEST: 2 Commanding Time - runs well off short back-ups, and comes into this off 6-day break. Was weak when on-pace and faded behind Contributer last week. Forgive, and go again.

 

  Saturday

  4.50pm Moonee Valley Race 7

  Dilmah Vase (Group 2) 2040m

  BET: 2 Chivalry

  Missed out on getting in Cox Plate field. So if the stable were prepared to pay up for him there, surely he's a big chance here. Plenty were prepared to sack him after he was supported but again teased without delivery in the Caulfield Guineas. My feeling's always been he'd be at his best at a mile and a quarter, and gets it for the first time in his career here. His first-up win at Caulfield was electrifying. Any repeat and he'll get job done.

  NEXT BEST: 6 Duccio - strong Sydney form chasing home Derby favourite Hampton Court last start, and beat Preferment two back. Wide gate but on-pacer, so can cross, lead and does fight.

 

  5.40pm Moonee Valley Race 8

  W.S Cox Plate (Group 1) 2040m

  BET: 2 Fawkner

  Favourite, and plenty will be trying to find horses to beat him. But he has the best form, should get the perfect run, and is a proven multiple Group 1 winner. Don't be fooled by a record of one win from four goes at Moonee Valley. Two of those were in unsuitable sprints. One of those defeats was one of his career-best performances, chasing home Black Caviar over 1200m at Group 1! The one to beat.

  NEXT BEST: 12 Almalad - recent history says beware a lightly weighted free-rolling three-year-old in this race: Shamus Award, So You Think etc. To my mind, Almalad is the best of these in the race this year. Group 1 winner, and won well at the Valley two starts back so proven at track. Forgive Guineas failure when he had hard run. One unit win, four units place.

 

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