Top 5 busts - Fantasy Premier League 2015-16

Fantasy Duds

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By now, you’ve read up on who you should do your best to include in your squad on opening day. But what about players to avoid?

More so than other fantasy sports, sniffing out potential busts is critical to fielding a competitive team. Consider that last season Robin Van Persie started as one of the league’s top 10 forwards for Manchester United. If you’d been relying on Dutchman’s performances, well, let’s just say that you wouldn’t be able to purchase a ticket to Istanbul with your league winnings to watch him for his new side, Fenerbache.

RED CARDS

These are some big name players we’d generally avoid taking unless you sense real value in when you’re taking them.

Danny Ings (F), Liverpool

Liverpool’s signings from smaller clubs have gone both ways. For every Jordan Henderson, there’s an Andy Carroll. Ings is a hot prospect who served up big production for Burnley last season. But Liverpool have a crowded frontline-- the just-signed Christian Benteke is more established, the recently arrived Divock Origi is perhaps more tantalizing, Roberto Firmino, who will play across the front three, is a key player, too, and returning players like Lazar Markovic, Jordan Ibe, and England star Daniel Sturridge figure to be ahead of Ings for the moment. Then there is enigmatic Italian Mario Balotelli. The bottom line -- we think Ings can be productive when he plays, but he has his work cut out for him to ensure playing time.

Ander Herrera (M), Manchester United

Another case of manager’s plans potentially being in conflict with performance. Last season, Herrera struggled to acclimate the Premier League, got hurt, then slowly crept his way into Manchester United’s preferred starting 11. But Louis Van Gaal doesn’t seem 100 percent convinced of his talents, as he’s brought in two established midfielders in Bastian Schweinsteiger and Morgan Schneiderlin. That’s with Marouane Fellani, Michael Carrick and Daley Blind already on the roster. Even if Van Gaal goes with three central midfielders, this is a situation that warrants caution. Herrera’s potential upside is high if he plays, and he tends to get involved in every facet of the game. But the close season has proven that Van Gaal can be ruthless if he feels the team needs something else. Just ask Robin Van Persie.

Fabian Delph (M), Manchester City

England midfielder Delph was an effective fantasy play most of last season, racking up tackles, headers and accurate passes in their successful relegation battle. But he is decamping for a much different situation at the Eithad. Even if you project him breaking into the Manchester City rotation -- a big if, considering the wattage of foreign talent there -- there’s not a lot of reason to be optimistic that Delph can maintain a strong output, as he did last year. He is only the most recent purchase from a lower table English club to make the trip to City, and those who have passed before him -- Jack Rodwell, Gareth Barry, Scott Sinclair -- have left with little to show for their transfers.

Ryan Bertand (D), Southampton

Southampton defender Bertrand was one of the Premier League’s breakthrough stars last season. Bertrand slotted in as a left back for Southampton and was a mainstay in the team’s surprising and stout defense, racking up points to make him among the best fantasy defenders. But we will be exercising caution for this season, as Bertrand recovers from a knee injury and we learn more about the impact of Southampton’s disruptive summer -- which has seen key players Morgan Schneiderlin and Nathaniel Clyne sold. Bertrand may recover quickly and his production may not drop off despite losing talented teammates. But we’re worried that losing Clyne on the right side will throw off the balance of Southhampton’s defense and a capable shield in Schneiderlin will mean less marauding down the wings.

Jack Wilshere (M), Arsenal

Jack the Lad may as well change his name to, Jack Wilshere -- if he is fit. That’s always the question with the England and Arsenal playmaker. When he can play, Wilshere gets into every aspect of the game and is capable of truly majestic play. But over the past two seasons, owners looking for steady production would have been better off gravitating to dozens of other options. This is the first season that Wilshere has been 100 percent fit and gone through a preseason with Arsenal in the past three years. But we’d still exercise caution -- a high upside masks a low-side that could include, say, dropping him two week after the season starts when a niggling ankle injury turns into surgery.

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YELLOW CARDS:

Here are four other players, plus one collective, we aren’t saying to avoid -- just proceed with a bit of caution.

Oscar (M), Chelsea 

This seems crazy on its face. Chelsea’s Brazilian midfielder Oscar is young and still hitting his prime. But not all is right here. Toward the end of last season, Oscar appeared to fall out of favor with Chelsea’s manager, Jose Mourinho, with his performances tailing off in favor of wingers with a higher defensive work rate, like Willian, and formations that allowed Belgian Superstar Eden Hazard to drift toward the middle more. Rumors are also circulating that Oscar could be sold abroad. Either way, a player who we’d normally comfortably rank in the top 20, far from Bustland, is a player for whom we’d advise avoiding.

Nacer Chadli (M), Tottenham

A jet-healed winger, Chadli is also a classic feast-or-famine fantasy player. When he’s on, as in his terrific performance against Arsenal at the Emirates last season, Chadli is a goalscoring threat who pokes around the attack, gets assists and springs into the box with pace. When he’s off, he’s an indifferent, even petulant player who annoys his coach, slows or scuttles Tottenham’s attack and adds precious little to your fantasy bottomline. Chadli is undoubtedly worth a roster spot. But the key question is consistency. Chadli’s real, mercurial identity is by turns, a star and a scrub. If you select him, bear that in mind.

Manchester City's Defenders

Manchester City have a policy of having two star-calibre players for every position. When you are backed by seemingly bottomless oil money, you can do that. But this wreaks havoc on a fantasy roster when you spend an early pick on say, Pablo Zabaleta, who is capable of monster production from the right back slot, only to have him dropped for Bacary Sagna. Same goes on the other side of the defense, where Gael Clichy and Aleksander Kolarov both produce big games, only to see their teammate swapped in a week later. In the middle, you have Vincent Kompany, Martin Demichelis and Elaqualim Mangala, all potentially productive but with probably only Kompany a certainty to start most games. You wouldn’t want to avoid these players altogether -- a big game from them would win you your week in many situations. But the up-and-down nature of their use can produce the effect of a bust even if they are actually having great seasons. If you draft a City defender, we recommend making sure you have a backup plan for their rotation, which is inevitable.

Antonio Valencia (D), Manchester United

Last season, Valencia established himself as one of the improbable stars of the Louis Van Gaal era, racking up key performances as a wide defender, and, along with Ashley Young, becoming one of the more unexpected beneficiaries of a managerial change. Valencia was given a new contract, and there’s no outward sign that Van Gaal has lost faith in him for any reason. But Manchester United have been very busy in the off-season signing new players, including Italian defender Matteo Darmian. In the other wide defender role, we suspect that Luke Shaw, a big money signing from Southampton last year, will likely get more playing time as he beds in. This doesn’t mean Valencia has no value -- he’s a versatile player and his work rate makes him the type of player that managers are loath to leave out. But it doesn’t present some uncertainty in terms of assessing his fantasy value. If you want him, wait a round later than your instincts tell you.

Remy Cabella (M), Newcastle

Here is another talented player thrown off by managerial change and uncertainty. It took France midfielder Cabella the better part of last season to settle into a productive stretch -- he suffered through his first managerial shift when Alan Pardew left Newcastle for Crystal Palace. But the attack-minded player is capable of big performances when he is engaged. He lands in our proceed-with-caution section because we’re not sure how Newcastle’s third manager in a year, Steve McLaren, will utilize Cabella. Newcastle spent a huge fee on a player who, in theory, profiles very similar to Cabella in Georginio Wijnaldum. That could mean McCalren plans a feisty, all-attack Newcastle. Or it could mean that he doesn’t rate Cabella. We’d take a wait and see approach here. 

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