The race for the Hyundai A-League title is down to five, but after the weekend's results, you wouldn't fancy having a bet on who will win the Grand Final on February 24.
The competition is so even at the moment that five weeks out from the end of the regular season nothing appears guaranteed. Six points separate first and fifth and the general consensus is that we won't know what the top four will look like until the completion of Round 21.
Melbourne's defence appears all but over, despite coming from two goals down to secure a draw against Adelaide on Saturday night. A team that has not won in seven weeks now needs a minimum of four wins in its last five, and that seems an unlikely prospect.
Wellington's win over Perth still gives it a mathematical hope, but the Phoenix have lacked the consistency this year to put the series of wins together required to get themselves into contention.
The postponed match between Sydney and Central Coast looms as the most vital in the run home. If Sydney beats Perth as expected this week then wins against the Mariners, it will have one foot in the finals.
The Mariners now have just a one-point lead at the top of the table and travel to Adelaide this week, where they have won just one of five. A date with FC then awaits Central Coast with its hold on the double chance on the line. If Sydney wins both matches and the Mariners lose both, then it will be on level points with four matches remaining.
It's been amazing turnaround for the A-League's glamour club over the past six weeks. When John Kosmina took over the sky blues had nine points from as many games; since then they have picked up 12 points in six games and not been beaten.
The move to appoint a controversial figure like Kosmina has proved a very shrewd one from Sydney. The dressing room needed to be shaken up, while the club's shiny veneer needed to be maintained. Who better to do that than the former Socceroo, who has taken an honest appraisal of a bunch of talented players and has sought to mould them into a team capable of putting in a consistent performance week-in, week-out.
Having said that, Sydney has achieved nothing yet this year, is not in the top four and a slip-up against Perth will put considerable pressure on it against Central Coast. It's a fine line between being a contender for the prized double chance and being out of the race altogether.
Of course Sydney's hopes depend on the teams above it, especially Adelaide and Newcastle, who seem to have differing issues at the moment. Reds coach Aurelio Vidmar is very concerned about his team's defence and little wonder after it coughed up a 2-0 lead on Saturday. Vidmar talks about the lack of experience in his defence, which has made Eugene Galekovic's settling-in period rather tough. Four times this year, Adelaide has scored two goals on the road and not come away with all three points, and Vidmar knows that's not good enough.
There are positives. The Reds score more prolifically than any other team and it has lost the least amount of games in the league, just three. Paul Agostino is starting to find form at the right end of the year and his confidence and leadership is much needed in a side which has plenty of talent, but not much composure.
Newcastle has scored just three goals in its past six matches and seems to have lost its ability to go forward with confidence. The Jets' one win in that period came with a late effort from Joel Griffiths against Queensland, but there seems to be little help for the front man in terms of scoring goals. He has seven of the Jets' 14 goals for the year while the only other striker to score this year has been Mark Bridge (two). Mario Jardel has been an abject failure, playing just over 300 minutes and getting just three shots on target. For a player famed for his goals-to-game ratio, this is a dismal showing and the pressure on Gary van Egmond to give 'Super Mario' game time is affecting the rest of the team.
The run home is relatively kind to them with games against the bottom three teams, two of which are at home, as well as games against Adelaide (at home) and Central Coast (away). It means in the final four weeks, the furthest they have to travel is 68km to their local rivals.
Queensland has proved the genuine surprise packets this year, with Frank Farina working miracles with a side which looked goal shy at season's start. The Roar have lost just one match in the 10 since the start of October and have beaten the ladder-leading Mariners twice in that time. They boast the best-balanced side in the competition with Craig Moore leading the defence, Danny Tiatto adding steel in the midfield and a depth of strikers doing the job. Eight players have got themselves on the scoresheet this year, including exciting youngsters Robbie Kruse and Michael Zullo, giving Farina plenty of options to work with.
The next two matches see them face the bottom two teams, but both are away from home. Two wins in those matches would see them go very close to top spot ahead of two home matches against Melbourne and Sydney and the final away match against Adelaide. That is the final match of the year and will be the only match in the final round which will feature two finals contenders. There is every chance that only then will we know who the four teams will be to progress to the post-season. No-one can take their spot for granted.