And so there were eight. That's right, Newcastle has just eight matches remaining to save its' Premiership hide in a scenario that no one saw coming when Big Sammy Allardyce rocked up at St James last July with a bag full of cash and the confidence that only comes with having been Bolton's most successful manager.
At the time, the Magpies were talking of a return to the Champions League as a fit-again Michael Owen and newly-signed Australian hitman Mark Viduka were meant to replicate the goalscoring fireworks of the Alan Shearer/Craig Bellamy era. Now, on Tyneside, with their club sitting in 14th, just four points above the drop zone, they're just talking survival.
For Newcastle and its embattled new manager Kevin Keegan, the final eight rounds of this campaign represent a succession of 'six point' matches as the once mighty Magpies attempt to haul themselves out of the relegation mire. The first of these comes at St James next weekend against a somewhat resurgent Fulham.
For Keegan, his club's draw over the next eight rounds is something of a mixed bag. The Magpies are scheduled to play three of their fellow relegation strugglers in Fulham, Reading and Sunderland at St James Park. Wins in all three of these matches will take Newcastle to 38 points, the so-called non-relegation mark in the Premiership, but simply saying the Magpies will take these points is somewhat problematic in itself.
This week's encounter with a Fulham side that is becoming increasingly dangerous under new manager Roy Hodgson is no certainty whatsoever. Fulham was crucified during the early parts of this season as injuries to key players like Brian McBride saw the London club mired in a relegation fight for the second successive year. However, with the chips down, Fulham's fighting qualities were on display against Everton last weekend as McBride scored the winner against an in-form Toffees side. Sure, Everton was probably still coming to grips with its untimely exit from the UEFA Cup midweek and was also hit by an injury to Andy Johnson, but in reality, Fulham played the fifth-placed side off the park. McBride is firing once again and in midfielder Jimmy Bullard - whose knee injury in 2006 reduced then Newcastle skipper Scott Parker to tears - have a deadball specialist that loves scoring from free kicks.
Newcastle, for its part, may go into this encounter with some degree of confidence following its second half performance against Birmingham. The Maggies may have drawn with their relegation competitor but, with Owen, Viduka and Obafemi Martins, all on the pitch for the first time this season, finally seemed to click into gear during the second half. However, therein lies the problem. All three strikers have been particularly injury prone this campaign and their returns have simply not been as high as last season. Although playing for two different sides, Martins and Viduka contributed 36 goals between them during 2006-07. This time around, they've managed just 11, while Owen's involvement in games since his horror World Cup knee injury has been sporadic at best.
If injuries rob Newcastle of its strike force, who does it turn to for goals? Alan Smith may be something of a striker, but, in name only, for he doesn't score many goals. Joey Barton has been a Britney Spearesque car crash this season and, although his time at Man City was hardly rosy, has seemed more ill at ease in the pressure cooker that is St James. Charles N'Zogbia is a good young player but more suited to delivering crosses than scoring goals while Damien Duff is simply not the player he was at Chelsea. Indeed, Newcastle's goalscoring woes can be summed up by the fact it has only scored 31 goals this season in 30 matches. This is actually better than all its relegation rivals. But, at the same time, a porous defence down the other end has conceded 57 goals, the most of any Premiership club barring the hapless Derby County, leading to the Magpies having a -26 goal difference, the second-worst in the competition. As three clubs have been relegated over the last four seasons on goal difference, this inequity will force the Magpies to go all out for wins against its relegation counterparts.
For Newcastle to successfully avoid relegation then, it needs to score goals against its relegation contemporaries while shoring up its defence and avoiding defeat against the other clubs it faces.
As mentioned, Fulham looks like a reasonably tough proposition this weekend, while games against Reading and Sunderland will be no walk in the park for Keegan's men either. The Royals are desperate to maintain their Premiership status and, although the loss of Steve Sidwell to Chelsea has hurt their campaign this year, the club still has fighting players of the calibre of Dave Kitson, Nicky Shorey and Shane Long to rely on, all of whom score goals. In Marcus Hahnemann, Reading also has a goalkeeper who has made more saves than any other Premiership stopper, although whether this says more about the Royals defence than Hahnemann is up for debate.
Newcastle also faces Sunderland in a desperate North East derby as well. Under Roy Keane, Sunderland has been a generally resilient fighting force this season, barring one major loss to Everton. As the pressure mounts heading towards the business end of the season, though, Sunderland looks like a team capable of beating the Magpies, especially as these derbies usually defy form and produce heated attritional battles. In Kenwyne Jones, the Back Cats also seem to have a player capable of busting through the Magpies' defence, while Michael Chopra could also pose problems for Kevin Keegan's men.
However, while much will be said about these relegation battles, the fact of the matter is that Newcastle still has some stiff opposition to face. Tottenham on the road will be a difficult challenge as Spurs seem to have a vast array of attacking options designed to cut Newcastle to shreds. Portsmouth at Fratton Park is another danger game, particularly as Pompey does not concede many goals with the reliable David James between the sticks. In Niko Kranjcar, the south coast side has a proven midfield general while Jermaine Defoe and Benjani Mwaruwari will be tough to mark in Pompey's forward third.
At the same time, if it comes down to Newcastle winning its last two games of the season, then Keegan could be in major trouble. The club faces Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in the penultimate round at a venue where the Blues have not lost since Shearer was a boy, while a final-round trip to Everton will also be a competitive encounter, particularly if the Toffees need the points to ensure a place in the Champions League next season. With that in mind, Dukes, Owen and Martins certainly have the job in front of them to avoid becoming the 2007-08 version of Leeds United.