28/06/2008 8:56 AM
For once, the marble has been kind to Australia with the Socceroos' path to South Africa looking relatively straight-forward after Friday's draw for the second round of qualification.
While Pim Verbeek has been outwardly cautious about his opponents, he would have been forgiven for affording himself a little smile when Australia was placed alongside Japan, Uzbekistan, Qatar and Bahrain in Group A.
Given Australia has a strong record against Qatar and Bahrain, it would appear it would need to simply finish above either Uzbekistan or Japan to book a spot among the 32 teams headed for South Africa in 2010.
Verbeek is of course wise to say that every match in Asia is fraught, especially with the unpredictable nature of AFC World Cup qualification in the past, but given that only one other team in the group has ever made it to a World Cup before (Japan), the Socceroos look well-placed.
Compare it to Group B, where all five teams have made it to World Cups before. South Korea, Iran and Saudi Arabia all played in Germany, while the UAE played in 1990 and North Korea back in 1966. Australia has also managed to avoid torrid trips to Pyongyang and Tehran.
The fixture has also fallen in the Socceroos' favour with the toughest trip of the entire campaign, the long haul to Tashkent, coming first-up. As top seed, Australia is afforded a bye on the first fixtured date, meaning Verbeek has ten days with his squad before the match against Uzbekistan to get his house in order.
Given Tashkent is more accessible from Europe then Australia, Verbeek should be able to base his preparations on the continent, organise a friendly against European opposition and fly into central Asia a couple of days prior. In contrast, Uzbekistan plays Qatar on the Saturday, meaning it will be flying its way around Asia while Australia is preparing in Europe.
The Socceroos' first home game is against Qatar, who they have beaten twice in the past four months in the first stage of qualifying. Australia clearly had the measure over Jorge Fossati's team in those two matches and it would be a great surprise if Qatar could turn the tables.
Bahrain, a team which Australia beat twice in qualifying for the 2007 Asian Cup, almost made it to the last World Cup after finishing third at this stage and then beating Uzbekistan in a playoff. It finished second to Japan in Group 2 and did beat the traditional powerhouse in March. The match against the Socceroos in November is not a clear FIFA date but Verbeek will be confident of getting his best players back to the Middle East. It's a six-hour flight from Europe.
The same can't be said for the February 11 match against Japan. Verbeek will have only two days with his players before the crucial match. If Australia can emerge from that clash with a point, then it should be well placed ahead of the final four games, three of which are at home.
As part of the advantage afforded to higher-ranked sides, they get to have more matches at home in the second half of the draw. That includes the April 1 match against Uzbekistan, plus the final two matches of the campaign against Bahrain and Japan. At this stage the Australians are scheduled to play three matches in 11 days, the first of which will be back in the baking heat of Doha.
Verbeek knows that qualification is a matter of picking up points away and winning matches at home, but does not believe the group will be decided until the end of the campaign. However, the likelihood that both Qatar and Bahrain could be all but eliminated before they face the Socceroos in June plays into his hands.
While a 'live' clash against Japan in Australia on June 17 would be a wonderful promotion for the game, the Socceroos should have secured their path before then. Verbeek has said the path to South Africa will need a little bit of luck and a lot of hard work. Well this is the little bit of luck, now it's up to you and your boys Pim.