14/08/2008 7:31 PM
It would be easy to overlook the start of the English Premier League this weekend, coming as it does right in the middle of the Beijing Olympics and clashing with the start of the A-League season.
But maybe the decided lack of interest in what is usually one of the most anticipated weekends of the season for the thousands of football fans in Australia has something to do with the increasingly lop-sided nature of the competition.
Even before a ball has been kicked the gap between the all-conquering 'big four' of reigning champions Manchester United, 2005 and 2006 champions Chelsea, 2002 and 2004 champions Arsenal and Liverpool to the rest of the competition appears as wide as ever.
This is reflected by the odds being offered on any one of those clubs to win the EPL title this year compared to their 16 rivals - who simply cannot compete on an equal footing due to the enormous spending power of the big four because of the fact they finish top four each season and thereby continually qualify for the riches of the European Champions League.
Darwin-based Sportsbet - one of Australia's leading sports bookmakers - has United at $2.35 to retain their title while Chelsea is at $2.75, Arsenal $5.50 and Liverpool at $8.
The next highest rated team is Tottenham at $67 - the same Tottenham that has lost vice-captain Robbie Keane to Liverpool and is on the verge of losing its other star striker Dimitar Berbatov to United because it could not hang onto its best players when members of the cashed-up 'big four' came calling with the lure of Champions League Football.
So bad has the situation become that bookmakers in Australia and England now even offer odds of which team will finish fifth - the best of the rest - with Spurs, who have finished fifth in two of the past three seasons, narrowly favoured ahead of Aston Villa and Everton.
Increasingly it seems the best the other clubs can hope for is to finish fifth or snare one of the two domestic cup competitions on offer as Portsmouth and Tottenham did last year by winning the FA Cup and League Cup respectively.
Indeed, as the 2008/09 season prepares to get underway you can split the 20 teams into three distinct categories - the big four, the wannabes and the relegation candidates.
The big four need no further introduction and you have to go back to 1995 and Blackburn for the last time one of them did not win the EPL title while Pompey's shock FA Cup triumph last year was the first time one of the big four had not won the FA Cup since Everton in 1995.
And while United will again start favourites over Chelsea, this year could be the Blues' year.
United's pre-season build-up has been dominated over whether or not last year's Player of the Year in Cristiano Ronaldo would leave the club for a move to Spain's Real Madrid and while the superstar winger has decided to stay at Old Trafford, one has to wonder how committed he really is to the club and whether his output will suffer.
And if it does it's hard to see how United will hold off a Chelsea side sure to be improved this year under Brazil World Cup-winning and Portugal European Championship manager Luiz Felipe Scolari or 'Big Phil' as he is more commonly known.
He replaces the low-key and ultimately unsuccessful Avram Grant and could well tip the balance of power back in favour of Stamford Bridge.
Liverpool - which has potentially the best strike pairing in the competition now that Keane will partner Fernando Torres - looms as the biggest danger to United and Chelsea and the Reds are getting increasingly desperate to end a title drought dating back to 1990.
But the Reds still look a shade below the other pair but along with a permanently underrated Arsenal side, that always looks vulnerable but never seems to drop out of the top four, will no doubt keep United and Chelsea honest most of the season.
Then there are the wannabes - the clubs that dream of breaking into the top four but just can never find a way to do it.
There are eight clubs in this middle bracket - Tottenham, Villa, Everton, Manchester City, Newcastle, West Ham, Portsmouth and Blackburn.
All have far greater financial resources than their lesser rivals but just can't ever seem to build squads capable of challenging the big four and can't compete with them financially.
Their best hopes of success will lie in winning either the FA or League Cup as Spurs and Pompey did last year and of this bunch it may well be perennial underachievers Villa that enjoys the best season this year.
Villa have improved from 16th to 11th to sixth in just two years under inspirational manager Martin O'Neill and have bolstered their squad considerably by signing not only last year's Player of the Year in Scotland in Carlos Cuellar but also experienced trio in keeper Brad Freidel, midfielder Steve Sidwell and defender Luke Young.
The relegation candidates comprise Sunderland, Middlesbrough, Fulham, Bolton, Wigan and the newly-promoted trio of West Brom, Stoke and Hull City.
Of this group Sunderland and Fulham - which has recruited well under experienced manager Roy Hodgson having secured Socceroos goalkeeper Mark Schwarzer as well as experienced forwards Andy Johnson and Zolton Gera look to have the most scope for improvement while Stoke - back in the top flight for the first time since 1985 - and Hull, in the EPL for the first time, face near impossible tasks to survive on their limited budget.
But West Brom, which has been something of a yo-yo club in recent times, can survive with a bit of luck with Wigan, Bolton and Boro - three clubs that have barely strengthened already weak squads - looking the most vulnerable of the established EPL teams.
Paul Gough's predicted EPL ladder this season:
1. Chelsea
2. Manchester United
3. Liverpool
4. Arsenal
5. Aston Villa
6. Tottenham Hotspur
7. Portsmouth
8. Everton
9. West Ham
10. Newcastle
11. Manchester City
12. Blackburn Rovers
13. Sunderland
14. Fulham
15. Wigan
16. Middlesbrough
17. West Brom
18. Bolton Wanderers
19. Hull City
20. Stoke City