In 2007, it was dubbed ‘Septopia’. In 2008, it is simply the AFL Finals Series. Thank goodness for common sense…
AND THEN THERE WERE EIGHT
AFL FINALS WEEK 1
With the finals sides settled, we mentioned last week that the organisation of ladder positions four to eight was the only really interesting component of round 22. As it stands, that is one of the great understatements of all time!
Fickle North Melbourne cruelly dishonoured their short-price backers with an abominable display that saw them sink from fourth to seventh, while Collingwood put in an equally ordinary effort consigning them to consecutive interstate trips. In perhaps the most interesting outcome, Adelaide fought hard to take fourth spot only to see St Kilda wrench it from them 24 hours later in an inexplicable turn of events.
Will we see a repeat this weekend? Here’s how each match is shaping up:
HAWTHORN v WESTERN BULLDOGS
Second Qualifying Final | Friday Sept. 5 | 7.50pm | Channel 7 | View the market here…
The Dogs’ form is clearly of some concern to punters, having lost five of their final seven home and away games. The Hawks on the other hand hit September with a full head of steam on the back of sizeable consecutive victories. Hawthorn understandably go in favourite, but Eade’s clear ascendancy over Clarkson in recent matches should not be ignored. With this in mind, the Doggies look overs and the Hawks, conversely, unders… A good trading opportunity, perhaps?
ADELAIDE v COLLINGWOOD
First Elimination Final | Saturday Sept. 6 | 2.30pm | Channel Ten | View the market here…
Since their disciplinary dramas a month ago, Collingwood have proven their tenacity with their backs against the wall, matching the Crows’ good late season form. A disgraceful round 22 effort by the ‘Pies has injected some value into their price though, which given Porplyzia’s absence, looks increasingly tempting. One opinion common amongst punters is that the game will be low-scoring; assess the unders in the total match points market.
SYDNEY v NORTH MELBOURNE
Second Elimination Final | Saturday Sept. 6 |7.30pm | Channel Ten | View the market here…
North needed only to defeat the lowly Power last week to stitch up fourth spot, but all they managed to do was prove that ‘Shinboner spirit’ is either a fallacy, or something that died in the ‘70s. You simply couldn’t have them on that effort, and unlike the ‘Roos, the Swans are on a roll, get Goodes and O’Keefe back this week, and have an imposing 6-2 record in finals at the Olympic Stadium. With this in mind their head-to-head price looks value and one well worth considering.
GEELONG v ST KILDA
First Qualifying Final | Sunday Sept. 7 | 2.40pm | Channel 7 | View the market here…
Led by their skipper, the second half of St Kilda’s season – right down to their theft of 4th spot in round 22 – has been tremendous. One suspects that the Saints’ depth across the deck just cannot match the indefatigable Geelong (fancy having the liberty of bringing Mackie and Rooke into an already all-conquering unit), who should carry on their merry way again this week. If you’re looking for some extra value about the Cats, the Saints have a 32.5 point head start at the even money line.
OTHER MARKETS + IN-PLAY BETTING
Don’t forget that Betfair’s Premiership and Brownlow markets clearly present the best value around. Geelong’s on-field dominance has carried into both markets; the Cats deemed a skinny 1.49 chance to go back-to-back, with punters considering Hawthorn the only realistic danger at 5.50. The Brownlow now appears a race in three, with Gary Ablett (2.64), Jim Bartel (4.30) and Boomer Harvey (5.70) dominating betting. If you have another player in mind, you can expect a great price well into double figures. And it may also pay to remember that with Betfair you can leverage your intuition of the fluctuations of footy matches by betting live in-play at any time – simply call 1800 759 354 to do so.