25/08/2008 1:49 PM
The top eight is settled but the jockeying for finishing positions is on in earnest heading into the last home and away round of the season.
Only Geelong, Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs are assured of finishing in the top four - and earning the double chance - with positions four to eight still up to grabs coming into the final round.
Just one game separates fourth-placed North Melbourne from eighth-placed Sydney with Collingwood, Adelaide and St Kilda half a game in between the pair and all separated by percentage only.
Here is the scenario heading into Round 22.
1 GEELONG: 20-1, 158.1. TO COME: West Coast (Skilled). LIKELY FINISH: Certain to finish top having won 39 of their past 41 matches and are overwhelming favourites to win back-to-back flags for the first time since 1952.
2 HAWTHORN: 16-5, 128.9. TO COME: Carlton (TD). LIKELY FINISH: Guaranteed to finish second or third and face the Bulldogs in a first week qualifying final but all eyes are on spearhead Lance Franklin this week as he needs just two goals to become the first player since Tony Lockett in 1998 to kick 100 goals in the home and away season.
3 WESTERN BULLDOGS: 15-5-1, 119.8. TO COME: Adelaide (AAMI). LIKELY FINISH: Finally got back on track after four losses in five games by beating Essendon and will stay third and face Hawthorn in the qualifying final even if it loses to Adelaide at AAMI Stadium this week.
4 NORTH MELBOURNE: 12-8-1, 100.5. TO COME: Port Adelaide (MCG). LIKELY FINISH: Despite their loss to Geelong, the Kangaroos are in pole position to secure the last spot on offer in the top four and earn the double chance in September. All they have to do is beat 13th-placed Port Adelaide at the MCG on Saturday and fourth spot - and a meeting with the Cats in the qualifying final for the second season in a row - is theirs. But a shock loss could see Dean Laidley's team fall as low as eighth.
5 COLLINGWOOD: 12-9, 112.9. TO COME: Fremantle (Subiaco). LIKELY FINISH: The Pies were the big winners out of Round 21, rising from seventh to fifth, and only need to beat 14th-placed Fremantle in Perth to guarantee finishing in at least fifth place and ensuring home advantage in a week one elimination final. But to finish fourth and earn the double chance they also need North to lose to Port on Saturday.
6 ADELAIDE: 12-9, 109.6. TO COME: Bulldogs (AAMI). LIKELY FINISH: With North and Collingwood expected to win, the Crows are unlikely to finish any higher than sixth but must beat the third-placed Bulldogs on Saturday to at least retain their current position and ensure home advantage in week one of the finals. A loss would probably see the Crows drop to seventh or eighth meaning they would then have to travel for their first final.
7 ST KILDA: 12-9, 105. TO COME: Essendon (TD). LIKELY FINISH: Secured their finals berth by beating Adelaide but now need the Crows to lose to the Bulldogs in order to leapfrog the Crows on the ladder and earn home advantage in week one of the finals. Looks certain to beat an injury-hit Essendon on Sunday and has the advantage