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Finals contenders' run home

11/08/2008 9:08 PM

The contenders were sorted out from the pretenders in round 19 or were they?

Four teams in Sydney, North Melbourne, Adelaide and Collingwood appeared to take a giant step towards joining Geelong, Hawthorn and the Bulldogs in September but even these teams aren't safe while eighth spot now appears a three way battle between St Kilda, Brisbane and Carlton although Richmond and Essendon remain mathematical chances.

Here is the run home for all the finals contenders.

1 GEELONG: 18-1, 160.3. TO COME: Sydney (ANZ), North Melb (Skilled), West Coast (Skilled). LIKELY FINISH: Will finish top but could decide over the next fortnight which team will finish fourth and have to face them in the first week of the finals.

2 HAWTHORN: 15-4, 129.3. TO COME: Richmond (MCG), West Coast (Subiaco), Carlton (TD). LIKELY FINISH: Now up to second and clearly look the Cats' number one threat. All but certain to face the Bulldogs in a first week qualifying final.

2 WESTERN BULLDOGS: 14-4-1, 120. TO COME: Brisbane (Gabba), Essendon (TD), Adelaide (AAMI). LIKELY FINISH: Has lost three of its past four but can only slip below third and avoid a qualifying final meeting with Hawthorn if it loses its three remaining games and Sydney win all three.

4 SYDNEY: 11-7-1, 116.4. TO COME: Geelong (ANZ), Collingwood (TD), Brisbane (SCG). LIKELY FINISH: Finally got back on track after four losses in five games but only just against Fremantle. Two wins out of three may be enough to secure fourth and will be favourites to beat Brisbane and rank underdogs this week against Geelong so the Collingwood game will determine their fate.

5 NORTH MELBOURNE: 11-7-1, 99.6. TO COME: Carlton (TD), Geelong (Skilled), Port Adelaide (MCG). LIKELY FINISH: The form team of the competition, along with Geelong, with five straight wins and need just one more to secure their 12th finals berth in 16 years. But because of a poor percentage may need to win all three to finish in the top four for a second successive season and unlikely to beat Geelong in round 21.

6 ADELAIDE: 11-8, 110.1. TO COME: Essendon (TD), St Kilda (TD), Bulldogs (AAMI). LIKELY FINISH: Back on track now with three straight wins following five straight losses and will fancy their chances of winning all three remaining games. The favourites now to grab fourth spot and earn the double chance.

7 COLLINGWOOD: 10-9, 109.8. TO COME: Port Adelaide (AAMI), Sydney (TD), Fremantle (Subiaco). LIKELY FINISH: Needs two wins to secure finals berth and should get one this week against a struggling Port. But last two games are tough although good percentage could be enough for the Pies to scrape into the eight even with just 11 wins.

8 ST KILDA: 10-9, 100.2. TO COME: Fremantle (Subiaco), Adelaide (TD), Essendon (TD). LIKELY FINISH: Have blown their top four hopes by losing to West Coast and Collingwood in the past three weeks and still need two wins to make the finals. But they face a tough fortnight with another tricky trip to Perth followed by a crunch game against Adelaide. May only beat Essendon in round 22 but could even scrape in with 11 wins depending on percentage.

9 BRISBANE LIONS: 9-10, 100.6. TO COME: Bulldogs (Gabba), Carlton (Gabba), Sydney (SCG).

 
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