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Race for September still alive

Race for September still alive

22/07/2008 11:59 AM

St Kilda to finish in the top-four, Richmond to make a rare finals appearance and the Brisbane Lions to miss out completely.

They are just some of the possible finals scenarios with six rounds to go as the jockeying for top-eight positions begins in earnest.

Sportal's footy expert Paul Gough has taken a look at what is to come and given his views on each of the teams remaining in the race for the finals.

1 GEELONG: 15-1, 154.1. TO COME: Hawthorn (MCG), Richmond (TD), Melbourne (MCG), Sydney (ANZ), North Melb (Skilled), West Coast (Skilled). LIKELY FINISH: Can all but sew up top spot by beating the third-placed Hawks this week and can even afford a loss and still finish in pole position.

2 WESTERN BULLDOGS: 13-2-1, 127. TO COME: Carlton (TD), Sydney (Manuka), North Melb (TD), Brisbane (Gabba), Essendon (TD), Adelaide (AAMI). LIKELY FINISH: Virtually certain to finish second or third and meet Hawthorn in a first-week qualifying final.

3 HAWTHORN: 13-3, 125.3. TO COME: Geelong (MCG), Collingwood (MCG), Brisbane Lions (Aurora), Richmond (MCG), West Coast (Subiaco), Carlton (TD). LIKELY FINISH: Virtually certain to finish second or third and will meet the Bulldogs in a first-week qualifying final.

4 SYDNEY: 10-5-1, 123.1. TO COME: Adelaide (SCG), Bulldogs (Manuka), Fremantle (SCG), Geelong (ANZ), Collingwood (TD), Brisbane (SCG). LIKELY FINISH: Despite their six-point break at present, the Swans are no certainties to finish fourth and earn the double chance. Will have to win at least four of their last six to be sure of a top-four finish but face difficult games against the Bulldogs, Geelong and Collingwood.

5 COLLINGWOOD: 9-7, 117.9. TO COME: Essendon (MCG), Hawthorn (MCG), St Kilda (MCG), Port Adelaide (AAMI), Sydney (TD), Fremantle (Subiaco). LIKELY FINISH: The Pies still have a great chance of finishing fourth but will have to beat both Sydney and St Kilda to earn the double chance as well as not slip up against Essendon, Port or Fremantle.

6 BRISBANE LIONS: 9-7, 105.8. TO COME: Richmond (TD), North Melbourne (Gold Coast), Hawthorn (Aurora), Bulldogs (Gabba), Carlton (Gabba), Sydney (SCG). LIKELY FINISH: The Lions have little chance of finishing in the top-four due to their tough run home and are not even certain to make the eight. Play two of their finals rivals in the next two weeks and losses there could see them miss the eight given they face the Hawks and the Bulldogs after that and finish with the Swans in Sydney.

7 ST KILDA: 9-7, 101.8. TO COME: West Coast (Subiaco), Port Adelaide (TD), Collingwood (MCG), Fremantle (Subiaco), Adelaide (TD), Essendon (TD). LIKELY FINISH: The Saints are a huge chance to grab fourth spot and the double chance given their dream run home. They will be favourites to win five of their last six while the Round 19 clash against the Magpies looks an even-money bet at this stage.

8 NORTH MELBOURNE: 8-7-1, 95.9. TO COME: Melbourne (MCG), Brisbane (Gold Coast), Bulldogs (TD), Carlton (TD), Geelong (Skilled), Port Adelaide (MCG). LIKELY FINISH: Will need to win at least three of their last six to hang onto eighth spot but should beat Melbourne, Carlton and Port. One more win would ensure a finals berth but just three wins could mean eighth spot coming down to a percentage

 
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