Spinner Kerrigan was added to England's squad ahead of game two of the five-match series at Lord's, despite surrendering 53 runs in just eight overs in his solitary Test appearance against Australia last August.
After Graeme Swann's retirement during the miserable 5-0 Ashes whitewash earlier this year, England have lacked a specialist spinner.
However, Botham does not envisage any changes to the team that drew the first Test, meaning all-rounder Moeen Ali would remain England's main spin option.
"Spinners have not got a great record on this ground, so I'd be a little surprised if Kerrigan plays - I think England will stay pretty much with the side they’ve got," the former England all-rounder told Sky Sports.
"I don't see many reasons to change it; if everyone's fit I think that's the way they'll go. It's the way I would expect them to go.
"They can blood these guys and give them a taste of it but at the end of the day, you don't play a spinner if he's not good enough.
"If a spinner's good enough, then he's got a case, but I think England will just be trying to integrate him into the system to see what it feels like."
England players including Gary Ballance have backed Kerrigan to bounce back from his humiliating experience at the Oval last year, but Botham is of the opinion that the hosts will retain faith in their seam attack.
"Kerrigan, when he turned up at the Oval and played, virtually everyone knew very little about him," he added. "He came in after Shane Watson had already targeted him in the game before at Northampton.
"He targeted him again there and Australia scored 53 runs off his eight overs. It's hard to come back from that, so there's no need to rush the lad.
"England's strength is in their seam department at the moment. Let's hope that they get something to help their seamers."