Four years ago the fourth Test proved the pivotal game of the series. History is threatening to repeat itself again.
Despite the question marks hovering above both teams' attacks there is compelling evidence suggesting that a winner will be produced at Headingley.
The past 10 Tests here have produced a victor. Since 1981 only two of 25 Tests have ended in stalemates.
Of course, statistics can mean bollocks. Australian players dominate the series' runs and wickets lists but the tourists trail 1-0.
It has won three of the past four Tests at Leeds but those successes had more to do with England's incompetence than any affinity with the ground.
The condensation of the modern game means the Ashes, among its many charms, is one of few series' which provide fourth and fifth Tests.
Weaknesses must be addressed in the middle or reinforcements parachuted in. Players cannot hide behind a veil of bad luck or in an airport lounge.
And these two sides need much airbrushing.
Australia will lose its No.1 ranking at the end of this series should it lose but have only rarely played like kings in the past year.
The absence of bowling royalty explains the fall from grace though Australia's treatment of Stuart Clark makes it hard to fork out the change required for a sympathy card.
Clark's omission thus far becomes harder to comprehend by the day. The selectors appear set on their course and to deviate from it now would be a tacit admission they were wrong.
There is a saying about noses and faces which describes such stubbornness.
Australia has shown great faith in its successful pace trio from South Africa and only Ben Hilfenhaus has proved his worth.
Veteran Brett Lee's 310 Test wickets will count for little as selectors decide whether to punt on his lack of match practice.
Ricky Ponting, as his nickname suggests, loves a punt but as much as Lee has been missed this tour it would be a massive gamble to rush him back into the side without first seeing him pull through a tour game.
The last thing Australia needs is to be reduced to a three-man attack and have Lee watch on from the dressing room wearing a sheepish face with two fit bowlers sitting either side of him wondering why they were neglected.
England has its own share of selection quandaries and, no doubt unsurprisingly to critics who believe he is disruptive to the team, it is Flintoff's name which is making headlines.
In a sign of what England could miss or no longer have to endure - depending on which side of the fence you sit - the all-rounder's absence leaves a hole which only two players can adequately fill.
If Flintoff is ruled out, there is a big chance Jonathan Trott could become England's latest South African Test cricketer and a recall given to Steve Harmison or left-arm swingman Ryan Sidebottom.
The weather forecast could decide which of that pair comes in.
It would also dictate how this match is played.
Australia's batsmen have been out of sync when it swings but marched to the beat of their own drum when it does not.
Fortunately for England, the clouds have rolled in at the right time for it this series.
Andrew Strauss was giving a press conference on match eve when an astutely placed commercial backdrop bore the brunt of a cricket ball which otherwise had the England captain's name written all over it.
Australia will be dearly hoping that's the last piece of luck Strauss has at Headingley.