Although analysing those aspects help provide some clear separation between the so-called elite and the bottom of the rankings, it also leaves a muddled middle of similar veterans and young guns.
It’s a tough challenge, but Vinnie Iyer from Sporting News isn’t backing away from compiling his top 25 starters (no ties) going into training camp. Recent history and potential for ’14 were the biggest criteria, but the overall body of work also was considered.
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
Passer rating since 2011: 112.7
Winning percentage since 2011: .647
Career Super Bowl rings: 1
Based on the factors of past achievement and current value, Rodgers is just a bit better than the rest of the revered passers on the league’s Mount Rushmore. He’s the youngest of the quartet, and by far the most mobile. He also has the best arm in the game and delivers top efficiency with it. Not docking him for last year’s nicks, don’t consider his pole position to be an upset.
2. Peyton Manning, Broncos
Passer rating since 2012: 110.8
Winning percentage since 2012: .777
Career Super Bowl rings: 1
Manning has been terrific during his two-year stint in Denver, but there’s still that disappointment of not being able to finish either season with a Super Bowl ring. After setting the new single-season records for touchdowns and yardage last season, there’s no way he was about to slide lower than No. 2. It’s amazing how he’s gotten better than he’s ever been at age 38.
3. Drew Brees, Saints
Passer rating since 2011: 103.8
Winning percentage since 2011: .635
Career Super Bowl rings: 1
Brees has become a reliable machine and didn’t have much of a hiccup without Sean Payton during the non-playoff season in 2012. His numbers jumped in 2011 and should get more attention, even with others breaking records. His steady hand, leadership and uncanny connection with Payton make him so dangerous. Brees’ revamped weapons will allow him to push for a “Super” MVP-style season in 2014.
4. Tom Brady, Patriots
Passer rating since 2011: 97.1
Winning percentage since 2011: .745
Career Super Bowl rings: 3
Brady has slipped a bit physically while he’s had to deal with shifting personnel, both with his supporting cast and coaches. What makes up for the slight dropoff is the fact he just does what it takes for his team to keep racking up wins and AFC East titles. He has the most impressive ring resume in today’s NFL, and it’s kind of shocking 2014 marks 10 seasons since New England last won the Lombardi Trophy.
5. Russell Wilson, Seahawks
Photo by Harry How/Getty Images
Passer rating since 2012: 100.6
Winning percentage since 2012: .757
Career Super Bowl rings: 1
We knew that a whipper snapper would join the venerable ones in the top five. Wilson earns that designation because he’s the only QB drafted in this decade to help his team win it all. Detractors will say Seattle won with running and defense. But they didn’t exactly try to hide Wilson’s arm, and he still came up with big plays and smart decisions despite working with a non-marquee receiving corps.
6. Andrew Luck, Colts
Passer rating since 2012: 81.5
Winning percentage since 2012: .657
Luck’s efficiency would put him lower, but one needs to assess him more like an old-school gunslinger with new-school attributes (see smarts and athelicism). He’s not afraid go for the big pass and make it, including thriving vs. the high degree of difficulty on third downs. He’s also managed to work through two different offenses, receiver injuries and running back ineffectiveness to guide a team with many holes to the playoffs in his first two seasons.
7. Philip Rivers, Chargers
Passer rating since 2011: 94.2
Winning percentage since 2011: .500
The reason Rivers is this high is his awesome rebound with coach Mike McCoy last season. Most of the season, only Manning was better. While he was in danger of going into the tank during the end of the Norv Turner era, the Chargers played to his strengths of a quick-release and diverse passing to produce his best career output. The team’s playoff berth completed his meteoric rise back into the top 10.
8. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
Passer rating since 2011: 92.8
Winning percentage since 2011: .578
Career Super Bowl rings: 2
Roethlisberger hasn’t suffered through the performance dips that either of his 2004 first-round draft mates, Rivers and Eli Manning, have had of late. His version of steady is still more spectacular than most. He maintains his second-tier status on the strength of the two rings, even though Pittsburgh has gone two seasons without the playoffs. With more help from the running game, he should have the Steelers back in AFC contention again in 2014.
9. Colin Kaepernick, 49ers
Passer rating since 2011: 93.8
Winning percentage since 2011: .724
Of the quarterbacks ranked 5-10, he has the best chance to shoot up into “e-word” territory as quickly as this season. It helps he has a mega contract that he wants to max out as great incentive. Beyond plenty of electric running through just 23 starts, he’s already had the 49ers on the brink of two Super Bowl victories. His accuracy on the move can get into the Rodgers stratosphere fast. It’s about time for him to be let loose more as a passer with his best receivers yet. It’s the formula to stamp that impressive early playoff resume with a ring.
10. Tony Romo, Cowboys
Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images
Passer rating since 2011: 96.1
Winning percentage since 2011: .511
OK, we know you Romo critics will point to his team’s mediocrity and misperceived fourth-quarter foibles as why he’s too high. Or his age (34) combined with back issues. But he’s done his best to keep the Cowboys afloat with their boatload of defensive problems. He’s been given more responsibility and keeps showing physical toughness. The prolific and the efficient have been there, and Dallas will lean even more on his right arm with a pass-happier scheme in 2014. It’s good thing he’s never quite had so many nice receiving options.
11. Matt Ryan, Falcons
Passer rating since 2011: 93.6
Winning percentage since 2011: .549
If anything, Atlanta’s fall to 4-12 last season should have been a reminder of how dependent the team was on Ryan. With his top wideouts hurt, a shaky offensive line and a non-existent running game, Ryan could have taken a much bigger dip last season. There’s a cool steadiness about him, and as the Falcons have shored up some things around him, they’ll have him back on track. The shot at winning big in the playoffs again may have to wait after a transitional 2014, however.
12. Eli Manning, Giants
Passer rating since 2011: 83.3
Winning percentage since 2011: .558
Career Super Bowl rings: 2
There’s plenty of gunslinger mentality with Manning, and it’s hurt in the regular season as 2013 marked the second time in four seasons he led the league in interceptions (27). He’s never going to be the efficiency expert his brother is, but the Giants are trying by bringing in Ben McAdoo, Rogers’ former mentor, to improve his consistency. We know what’s he capable of as a streaky passer, getting hot enough in 2007 and 2011 to win Super Bowl MVPs. We expect even more of him because of those rings, and that new offense will lead to a nice rebound.
13. Cam Newton, Panthers
Passer rating since 2011: 86.4
Winning percentage since 2011: .531
The first overall pick in the 2011 draft is inching toward greatness with solid improvement over his first three seasons. His rushing ability (2,032 yards) pushes him up here for now, but we saw signs of him maturing as a passer in 2013. The Panthers were smart to reboot their receivers to give him his new go-to guy, Kelvin Benjamin, and the concerns there are overblown. In a limited, defense first, run second type of offense, he showed that big-stage flair with plenty of clutch plays. He’ll only keep building the confidence in a pivotal Year 4.
14. Nick Foles, Eagles
Passer rating since 2012: 101.0
Winning percentage since 2012: .529
Foles was the hardest to place because of his small sample size (16 starts, 10 coming last season). But his second half of last season rivaled the league’s elite with what should have been an impossible 27-2 TD-to-INT ratio in such a high volume, complex passing offense. Chip Kelly has found his man. No longer needing to worry about his starting status, Foles’ extended knowledge and confidence will prove he wasn’t a fluke. Contrary to belief, the Eagles’ pass-catchers look better this year even without DeSean Jackson.
15. Joe Flacco, Ravens
Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images
Passer rating since 2011: 80.2
Winning percentage since 2011: .630
Career Super Bowl rings: 1
Flacco was another toughie. He would have been higher following his Super Bowl MVP passing that pushed Baltimore to a ring after the 2012 season. The positives are that he’s ultra durable and the Ravens have been in consistent AFC contention since he was a rookie in 2008. He also possesses a huge arm and the ideal frame. The big negative was the disappointing hangover he had in 2013, leading to his first non-playoff season. They meet in the middle of the NFL passing pack.
16. Robert Griffin III, Redskins
Passer rating since 2012: 91.5
Winning percentage since 2012: .414
RG3's huge sophomore fall post-knee injury followed an amazing rookie splash, but his potential to come way back up in 2014 just keeps him in the league’s top half. He’s healthier and found a good rhythm with new coach Jay Gruden, who will put him in less running danger. That should raise Griffin’s efficiency and downfield pop in the passing game. Adding DeSean Jackson and Andre Roberts to Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed doesn’t hurt, either. RG Year 3 will be a pleasant reboot with a bullet.
17. Alex Smith, Chiefs
Passer rating since 2011: 92.5
Winning percentage since 2011: .733
You might question why the 31 wins in three seasons with two teams doesn’t have Smith higher. But as efficient as he’s been with his underrated arm, the pop hasn’t been there save for his two seasons under Jim Harbaugh in San Francisco. His yards per attempt (6.52) put him No. 29 in the league last season. There’s nothing wrong with the fact Smith is built more to lead a run-oriented, defensive-minded team. It just keeps him out of the top half of preferred starters.
18. Andy Dalton, Bengals
Passer rating since 2011: 85.7
Winning percentage since 2011: .588
Let’s start with the good news. Dalton has seen his efficiency, touchdowns, yards, big-play punch and regular-season record improve through his first three years. The bad news is he’s 0-3 in the playoffs, the interceptions have kept going up and fourth-quarter comeback potential goes down. He’s either in for a big spike tied with a new, lucrative contract or Cincinnati is about to overpay big-time. The talent around him and new coordinator Hue Jackson has the team confident there will be a lot more of the good with less of the bad.
19. Matt Stafford, Lions
Passer rating since 2011: 86.9
Winning percentage since 2011: .429
On film, we love Stafford’s crazy rifle arm and some of the eye-popping numbers he’s been able to put up with Megatron. But then again, it comes out of a monstrous volume, and after what seemed like his breakthrough in 2011 — along with a playoff berth — his TD-INT output (20-17, 29-19) still feels like it should be a lot higher. The Lions are trying to fix him with improved weapons and the efficiency-based corrections of Joe Lombardi and Jim Caldwell. Sounds Eli-ly familiar, doesn’t it?
20. Jay Cutler, Bears
Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
Passer rating since 2011: 85.1
Winning percentage since 2011: .611
Cutler presents a conundrum in many ways. His arm and complete skill set suggest he should have had more success in Chicago, and there looked to be a great spike in progress under Marc Trestman last season. Then you remember he’s missed 12 games over the past three (non-playoff) seasons, and journeyman backup Josh McCown looked better in 2013. The head and heart are the questions with Cutler, but if he ever gets those down straight he’ll rocket up the charts. It just may happen in 2014.
21. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
Passer rating since 2012: 79.1
Winning percentage since 2012: .469
When you look at him on the field, Tannehill’s combination of arm, frame and athletic skill set makes you think he has untapped potential to one day flirt with the elite. The huge jump from Year 1 to Year 2 was encouraging; he just needs to play considerable catchup to the young guns, especially his fellow 2012 draftees. The Dolphins have made more offensive tweaks to get it right, including getting Branden Albert at left tackle after Tannehill took 58 sacks last season. His biggest improvement needs to be becoming more aware of and handling pressure better.
22. Carson Palmer, Cardinals
Passer rating since 2011: 83.7
Winning percentage since 2011: .450
For someone who’s a strong-armed passer but a dinosaur in terms of dropback style and lack of athleticism, Palmer found himself in the best possible place to find new life as a starter at age 34. Bruce Arians wanted him to rear back and fling it to his talented wide receivers, Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, and he did that. It just comes with a lot of sacks and turnovers. The inconsistency will remain, but the Cardinals should hope adding an elite left tackle (Jared Veldheer) and even more downfield speed will help Palmer a bit.
23. Josh McCown, Buccaneers
Passer rating since 2013: 109.0
Winning percentage since 2013: .600
This is the starting anomaly in the NFL. In a league full of accomplished vets and rising youngsters, a 35-year-old journeyman backup makes the cut. Everything is tied to his great sub stint in Marc Trestman’s offense last year. It was reason enough for the Bucs to think he could re-create that full time under Jeff Tedford with receivers (Vincent Jackson, Mike Evans) and a passing offense set up much in the same way. We’re worried just a bit about McCown being exposed in a less-than-perfect situation playing in the defense-rich NFC South.
24. Sam Bradford, Rams
Passer rating since 2011: 80.8
Winning percentage since 2011: .333
Much has stacked against Bradford as the last rookie quarterback to get a megadeal. Since 2010, there have been no playoff trips, limited improvement and durability concerns with 15 missed games over the past three seasons. He also has been through the wringer with offensive systems with an always-reshuffling supporting cast. That said, he was off to a fine start in 2013 before a season-ending knee injury struck. This is pretty much it for Bradford in 2014, as he’s been given some continuity. This time, make or break is more reality than theory.
25. EJ Manuel, Bills
Photo by Rick Stewart/Getty Images
Passer rating since 2013: 77.7
Winning percentage since 2013: .400
Manuel has some of physical qualities of Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton, but it will take some time before they manifest on the field. He also has to shake the injury bug to get that extended opportunity to develop on the fly in Year 2. It helps he has an offensive-minded coach and a bona fide, game-changing wide receiver now in Sammy Watkins. The promise is there for something special, and we’ll see if Manuel can start heading there in 2014.