I think most people who have grown accustomed to Brady's stellar play over the years would have to agree. That's what my eyes are telling me and the numbers certainly bear that out.
We're talking about a guy who has a 63.4 career completion percentage, yet through the first half of this season he is connecting on just 55.7 percent of his passes. That's about 5 percent lower than he has been in any of his 13 seasons as the starting quarterback in New England. The same guy who threw for more than 10,000 yards the last two seasons and has averaged more than 36 touchdown passes the last three years, is on pace to fall well short of 4,000 yards and has just 9 TD tosses at the midway point of the season.
Yep, it's his worst season. By a lot, really, when you consider the explosion of the passing game and the numbers that everyone else in the league seems to be putting up. The question isn't whether this is as bad as we've ever seen from Brady. The question is, why? And how the heck are the Patriots still 6-2 despite his poor play and the significant losses they've taken both in free agency in the offseason and on the injury front so far this season?
Before you label me a Brady basher, keep in mind that I am not only a former teammate of his (2005-06), but I happen to think he is very likely the greatest quarterback who ever played the game. He's got the Super Bowl appearances, championships, consistent success and ridiculous numbers that back that up. Unfortunately, this season is not helping out that argument all that much.
Is Brady declining? Is this the beginning of the end for a guy who says time after time that he wants to play for "ten more years" every time someone mentions retirement? Or is he just having an "off" year because of the crew he's been forced to play with? As is so often the case when trying to come too hard and fast conclusions on matters such as these, the answer is likely a combination of a number of factors.
Let's start with the obvious, which is the off-season defections. In a league that largely comes down to exploiting individual mismatches, the Patriots lost three of the top twenty guys in the NFL at creating those mismatches.
Aaron Hernandez was a hybrid player whose athleticism and versatility for his size made him a very difficult cover. He's currently behind bars.
Danny Woodhead is one of the two or three best running backs out of the backfield in the entire league and a guy that Brady could really rely on to win his one on one match-up against linebackers with ease because of his impressive quickness. He's now with the Chargers and Brady's loss has been Phillip Rivers' gain in San Diego.
Then there's the big one. Wes Welker. I believe he is arguably the best third-down receiver in NFL history and his loss is the single biggest reason why Brady and the Pats have uncharacteristically struggled on third down. And it's not just third down. Welker has already tied a career-high with nine touchdown grabs, even though Peyton Manning does a great job spreading the wealth in Denver. If you are looking for the biggest reason for Brady's decline, the lack of Welker in the line-up would be a heck of a place to start.
The guy handpicked by Bill Belichick to replace Welker, Danny Amendola, has been in and out of the lineup. The other primary targets this season were supposed to be running back Shane Vereen and tight end/monster Rob Gronkowski. Vereen got hurt in Week 1 and Gronkowski didn't see the field until Week 7, so they haven't been much help.
The guys who have played and filled in have been mainly newbies and the results have been mixed at best. Still, Brady got the Patriots to the AFC Championship game and a big lead in that game in 2006 with Reche Caldwell and the gang at receiver. Surely he can get more out of a much better and more talented corps this season, right?
So far the answer is no. Even with Gronk and Amendola on the field together on Sunday against the Miami Dolphins, Brady still had a terrible outing. He finished 13-for-22 for a paltry 116 yards with one touchdown and one interception. The Pats, who won 27-17, converted only two of 10 third-down plays. With those guys back and Brady still struggling, it is fair to wonder how much of this is on him.
One glance at the coaches tape and the answer is that a lot of it is on Brady himself, as sacrilegious as that might seem to say after his decade-plus of dominance. He's missing throws he typically never does, and lots of them. He's not seeing things he normally does, whether it is an oncoming blitz or an open receiver. He's just not playing very well. In fact, he's playing pretty poorly at times.
Pats fans will say he's just had an off first half of the season. Let's hope that's the case. The alternative is that father time is knocking on that door and Brady, at 36, isn't responding very well.
There's a reason why you don't see many successful baseball players or even golfers in their 40s. Time usually has an even bigger impact on football players because of the speed of the game. Skills diminish. Reaction times become just a hair slower. Guys like Brett Favre and Peyton Manning are the exception, not the rule.
If there's any player who will fight father time to the death, it is Tom Brady. He's that type of competitor and has the incredible mental toughness to take on that challenge.
Unfortunately, father time is undefeated and so far this season, it looks as if it's decided to take on Brady a lot sooner than any of us imagined.