1: Hawthorn – Wins 15, Losses 4, Percentage 142.6
Final Stretch: Fremantle, Geelong, Collingwood
It’s a tough run home but the Hawks could and probably should win all three of these matches. Fremantle at Patersons Stadium will be a challenge. The Dockers haven’t been in great form and may have injuries but fell to Geelong by a nose on Saturday night. If they replicate that pressure against the Hawks at Subi, they could be in with a big chance. Any suspension to Jarryd Roughead for tripping could influence that game too. Hawks v Geelong should be a classic, though, with this game possibly being a showdown for a top-two position while the Hawks should easily account for Collingwood. Predicted Finish: Second on percentage to Sydney
2: Sydney – Wins 15, Losses 4, Percentage 139.1
Final Stretch: St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Richmond
The Swans should win all these games although if other results fall their way – namely if Hawthorn beat Freo and Geelong – then the Swans may not be able to lose a top-two spot even if they lose their final round game. But we can’t see the Swans dropping their guard at all. Predicted Finish: First on percentage over Hawthorn
3: Geelong – Wins 15, Losses 4, Percentage 113.1
Final Stretch: Carlton, Hawthorn, Brisbane
The Cats won’t want to take Carlton lightly, especially as the last time they played the two teams delivered one of the season’s more dramatic finishes. The big game here will be the clash against old rivals Hawthorn. The Cats famously dominated all but one of their games against the Hawks since the 2008 Grand Final but we still feel the Hawks may have their measure this time, especially if the winner is assured of a top-two spot. Predicted Finish: Third
4: Fremantle – Wins 13, Losses 6, Percentage 139.4
Final Stretch: Hawthorn, Brisbane, Port Adelaide
The Dockers have the ability to win all these games but whether they have the cattle on the park remains to be seen after injuries to Hayden Ballantyne (corked leg), Luke McPharlin (calf) and Nathan Fyfe (shoulder) on Saturday night. The seriousness of these injuries could very much determine whether they make top four or not as Port Adelaide, despite their dubious form, are still lurking with intent. Getting Michael Walters back may be essential for Freo. Predicted Finish: Fourth
5: Port Adelaide – Wins 12, Losses 7, Percentage 126.7
Final Stretch: Gold Coast, Carlton, Fremantle
The Power are good enough to beat Gold Coast and Carlton and generate some momentum, but beating Freo at home in the final round with a spot in the top four up for grabs will be a step too far. The Power won’t want to let things slip against Carlton either, as they could potentially lose the right to host a home final with North and Adelaide lingering. Predicted Finish: Fifth
6: North Melbourne – Wins 11, Losses 8, Percentage 114
Final Stretch: Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Melbourne
North Melbourne rediscovered their touch after consecutive losses with a dominant display against GWS. But whether they’re consistent enough to win all of their last three games – they’ve only managed to string three wins together once this year and never four – is debatable. The Roos won’t be able to take the Dogs lightly seeing as both sides play at home at Etihad, while the big match will be the clash with Adelaide at what’s effectively a neutral venue in Bellerive. That one promises to be a belter if both sides turn up. Predicted Finish: Seventh with an inferior percentage to Adelaide
7: Adelaide – Wins 10, Losses 9, Percentage 112.4
Final Stretch: Richmond, North Melbourne, St Kilda
The Crows are back in the eight after last week’s slip-up against West Coast and are shaping up as the big smoky in this finals series. Next week’s match is massive as the Crows take on an in-form Richmond that’s really pressing from below despite being in 12th. It doesn’t get any easier after that As Adelaide then face North at Bellerive with a potential sixth finish and a home final up for grabs. Although the Crows have better form as a side that’s chasing the eight as opposed to consolidating their spot, they have the quality to win all of these games. And, with a good percentage up their sleeves they should secure that home final. Predicted Finish: Sixth
8: Essendon – Wins 10, Losses 8, Percentage 105.9
Final Stretch: West Coast, Gold Coast, Carlton
None of these games will be easy for Essendon as they look to recover from consecutive losses. Already questions are arising as to whether this is another of their famous late-season capitulations, especially as the ASADA Federal Court Case starts on Monday. It all starts with a bang as the Bombers face a confident West Coast next week, with the Eagles also looking to maintain a late run at the finals. If Gold Coast can discover anything close to their best form, then they may challenge the Bombers as well while the Blues will be wanting to finish 2014 on a high against the old enemy. Any slips and the Bombers will be desperately slugging it out for the top eight and may need superior percentage to make the finals. Predicted Finish: Eighth
9: Collingwood – Wins 10, Losses 8, Percentage 100.9
Final Stretch: Brisbane, GWS, Hawthorn
Having produced their best win of the year against Port Adelaide last Sunday, the Pies produced another stinker over in Perth this weekend against the Eagles. That loss has probably cost them the finals. The young Collingwood side seem to be fading really badly but they have the ability to beat both Brisbane and GWS over the next fortnight and they have to make these games percentage boosters as well. However, the Pies now need to rely on a slip up from the sides ahead of them as they’re unlikely to beat Hawthorn in the final round. Predicted Finish: Ninth
10: Gold Coast – Wins 10, Losses 8, Percentage 97.2
Final Stretch: Port Adelaide, Essendon, West Coast
Gold Coast rallied against St Kilda last week but the Suns appear to have really done their dash. If they can scrounge wins over Essendon and West Coast then they’re still definitely in the hunt for a maiden finals appearance but it looks likely they will lose all of their last three games. Predicted Finish: 12th
11: West Coast – Wins 9, Losses 10, Percentage 111.8
Final Stretch: Essendon, Melbourne, Gold Coast
The Eagles have discovered form at the right time but may have left their run too late, despite winning three of their last four matches. West Coast have already beaten Melbourne and Gold Coast – just – this season and should be able to do it again. As a result the big game for them is next week’s clash with Essendon at Etihad Stadium. Win that one and they’re a big chance to finish on the same amount of points as Essendon, with percentage set to decide who features in September. Lose against the Bombers and it’s season over. Essendon should just have the class although much will depend on the battle between Eric Mackenzie and Jake Carlisle. Predicted Finish: 10th
12. Richmond – Wins 9, Losses 10, Percentage 104.1
Final Stretch: Adelaide, St Kilda, Sydney
The Tigers have produced six straight wins and are the form team of the competition. They haven’t won seven in a row since 1995, though, while the last time they won eight consecutive games in a single season was 1936. To make the finals, they need to win nine straight games and that hasn’t been done since 1921-22. They also haven’t faced a challenge as big as the Crows at Adelaide Oval in all their six wins. And, even if they beat the Crows, the still have to come up against Sydney in Round 23. Richmond are a mathematical chance but we can’t see finals happening, yet if they beat the Crows and other results fall their way, then ninth is up for grabs! Predicted Finish: 11th