1: Sydney – Wins 13, Losses 3, Percentage 143.5
Final Stretch: Hawthorn, Essendon, Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Richmond
It’s hard to see Sydney losing too many matches from here on in. Mick Malthouse reckons they have the best depth he’s seen in about 400 years of footy experience and while that may be something of an exaggeration, there’s plenty of quality there, especially with Dan Hannebery, Rhyce Shaw and Kurt Tippett to return. The Swans will be challenged by Hawthorn, especially as the Hawks will be looking to make a statement against them after a narrow loss in May, while Essendon and Port won’t be pushovers either. But with three games against bottom 10 clubs to finish the campaign, they can tune things up nicely for September. Predicted Finish: First
2: Fremantle – Wins 12, Losses 4, Percentage 142.5
Final Stretch: St Kilda, Carlton, Geelong, Hawthorn, Brisbane, Port Adelaide
Freo shouldn’t have too many worries with St Kilda and Carlton over the next fortnight even if Hayden Ballantyne cops a suspension for his off-the-ball hit on Tomas Bugg. Wins in those two games will make it very hard for the Dockers to be pushed out of the top four. Things get a bit more difficult in the last month, though, as they face Geelong at Simonds – a venue where they won a final last season – before taking on Hawthorn at Patersons Stadium. A final-round clash with Port may settle whether Freo finish in the top two and earn a home final. Predicted Finish: Second
3: Hawthorn – Wins 12, Losses 4, Percentage 139.9
Final Stretch: Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Fremantle, Geelong, Collingwood
Hawthorn host Sydney in Round 18 and will be determined to maintain this week’s quality form from their win over Adelaide. The problem is the Hawks still seem a little undermanned – especially in defence – to handle Sydney’s array of forwards. The Hawks should beat the Western Bulldogs and Melbourne but have a difficult final three rounds, starting with a trip to Perth to face Fremantle. Win those three and the Hawks will be going at full throttle come September, although we all know how many times they’ve beaten Geelong since 2008. Predicted Finish: Third
4: Geelong – Wins 12, Losses 4, Percentage 112.4
Final Stretch: GWS, North Melbourne, Fremantle, Carlton, Hawthorn, Brisbane
It’s really difficult to get a read on Geelong. Even their coach, Chris Scott, admits he has no idea what his team are fully capable of. The Cats have won five of their last six since being copping a 110-point belting from Sydney but some of those wins have hardly been convincing and they’ve all been against clubs outside the top eight at the time. The Cats should be too good for GWS and Brisbane but will struggle against Freo at Simonds and even against their usual bunnies, the Hawks. Any other slips, though, could see them drop out of the top four making the Round 19 clash against North pretty important. Predicted Finish: Fourth
5: Port Adelaide – Wins 11, Losses 5, Percentage 133.9
Final Stretch: Melbourne, Collingwood, Sydney, Gold Coast, Carlton, Fremantle
With four losses from the last five, the Power are in freefall but at their best remain capable of winning all their last six games. After all they pushed Sydney all the way in a classic at the SCG just a few weeks ago. That being said, on Sunday they lost to a Richmond side that were more hungry despite having nothing to play for. The Power should win four of their last six games but the Swans and Freo (away) may prove too much and they look likely to finish one game adrift of the top four. But, any slips from Geelong, opens the double chance door. Predicted Finish: Fifth
6: North Melbourne – Wins 10, Losses 6, Percentage 115.5
Final Stretch: Carlton, Geelong, GWS, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Melbourne
North have won two in a row but their frustrating inconsistency from week to week makes tipping their last six matches an absolute nightmare. They do have the talent to win five of their last six games but the Round 19 clash with Geelong is looming as the big game here. Win that one and they could finish in fifth, but a spot in the top four seems unlikely due to their low percentage compared to Port Adelaide’s. Predicted Finish: Sixth
7: Essendon – Wins 9, Losses 7, Percentage 110
Final Stretch: Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Richmond, West Coast, Gold Coast, Carlton
The Bombers have stormed into the eight on the back of Sunday’s 64-point thumping of Collingwood. Amazingly that was done without three of their best players in Jobe Watson, Brendon Goddard and Michael Hibberd. Essendon were scratchy over the season’s first half but since their one-point loss to Melbourne, they’ve been sticking to the plan and getting some reward. On Sunday’s form, they can win five of their last six games but beating Sydney is too much of a stretch for just about anyone bar Fremantle and Hawthorn. The big game here, though, is their Round 22 clash with Gold Coast at Etihad Stadium. The winner of that will more than likely make the finals. The loser left to contemplate what might have been. Predicted Finish: Seventh
8: Collingwood – Wins 9, Losses 7, Percentage 106.6
Final Stretch: Adelaide, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Brisbane, GWS, Hawthorn
On Sunday’s form, the Magpies would be hard pressed to beat anyone over the last six weeks. But we think Collingwood will regroup over their fortnight off and win four of their last six games, although Port Adelaide – at the Portress – and Hawthorn are steps too far. Any slips and Gold Coast or Adelaide will be looking to pounce, making next round’s clash with the Crows a mini-final for eighth. Predicted Finish: Eighth
9: Gold Coast – Wins 9, Losses 7, Percentage 99.5
Final Stretch: Brisbane, St Kilda, Carlton, Port Adelaide, Essendon, West Coast
For now, it’s no Gazza, no Gold Coast. Without skipper Gary Ablett, the Suns were good for three quarters against the Western Bulldogs and held a narrow lead early in the final term. But ultimately the Dogs stormed over the top in a result that may mean the Suns miss the finals. Although injury will play a big part in this, the Suns are capable of winning four of their last six games. Port Adelaide at Metricon without Gazza seems a stretch too far, though, meaning for the Suns to make finals they have to beat Essendon at Etihad in Round 22. That match will prove vital for both sides and may be the best bit of fixturing we see from the AFL all season. Predicted Finish: An unlucky ninth, despite posting 13 wins!
10: Adelaide – Wins 8, Losses 8, Percentage 108.4
Final Stretch: Collingwood, West Coast, Brisbane, Richmond, North Melbourne, St Kilda
With their best team on the park, the Crows certainly have the talent to win all their last six games. The fortnight off before they face Collingwood will also give them time to rest up Scott Thompson and Patrick Dangerfield, both of whom were looking pretty beaten up after that loss to Hawthorn. Those two weeks could be vital heading into next round’s clash with Collingwood in a virtual eight-point game, while the Round 22 match against North Melbourne in Hobart could just decide if they make the finals. Predicted Finish: Tenth
11: West Coast – Wins 7, Losses 9, Percentage 108.2
Final Stretch: Richmond, Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon, Melbourne, Gold Coast
In reality, the Eagles have put the cue in the rack. They remain a mathematical chance of making the finals if they win all their last six games, but we can’t see it happening. Predicted Finish: Eleventh.