1: Sydney – Wins 13, Losses 4, Percentage 138.8
Final Stretch: Essendon, Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Richmond
We can’t imagine Sydney being too worried by Saturday night’s loss to Hawthorn. In fact, the Swans may be a tad relieved as not many teams win 18 straight. Doing so to win the flag is even rarer, so it’s probably the loss they needed to have. Sydney’s defence was exposed in the second half as Hawthorn embarked on a run-on and this will give John Longmire something to work with. But you can still see the Swans winning all their next five games as Dan Hannebery and Rhyce Shaw return, even if Essendon and Port (on the road) may cause a few issues along the way. Predicted Finish: First
2: Hawthorn – Wins 13, Losses 4, Percentage 138
Final Stretch: Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Fremantle, Geelong, Collingwood
While Saturday night won’t take too much skin off Sydney’s nose, it was invaluable for Hawthorn as they now have a real shot at top-two. The Hawks were given a hand by Freo’s shock loss to St Kilda, but they’ve taken that chance and run with it. The Hawks have to keep firing, though. They’re a better side than the Western Bulldogs and Melbourne but it’s the last three weeks where problems arise. The big match here is their clash with Fremantle in Perth, a game that may be a virtual top-two showdown. Win that and they will probably guarantee a home final in the first week. Lose and they may be back over in Perth for a qualifying final. The game against Geelong should be another cracker while the Round 23 clash with Collingwood will be huge. That may be the game that secures top-two for the Hawks, while the Pies may need to win to make the eight. It doesn’t get any bigger than that. Predicted Finish: Second
3: Geelong – Wins 13, Losses 4, Percentage 112.1
Final Stretch: North Melbourne, Fremantle, Carlton, Hawthorn, Brisbane
The Cats are a funny lot. They may be just off top spot on the ladder on percentage but their form hasn’t been exciting to say the least. That being said, they’ve still won six of their last seven matches since that 110-point smashing by Sydney and you can only beat who’s in front of you. The Cats have done that but not one of the teams they’ve beaten have been in the eight at the time they played. And, even their big wins over St Kilda and Melbourne haven’t been four-quarter efforts. As a result Geelong, remain an unknown quantity and have big tests to come in North Melbourne, bogey side Fremantle and Hawthorn. Carlton and Brisbane are also relishing being finals spoilers so they’re no gimmes either. Predicted Finish: Fourth
4: Fremantle – Wins 12, Losses 5, Percentage 133.2
Final Stretch: Carlton, Geelong, Hawthorn, Brisbane, Port Adelaide
The Dockers were ground into the Etihad dust by St Kilda last weekend in the greatest upset of the season so far. But we can’t see them playing that badly again, especially as four big players in Hayden Ballantyne, Stephen Hill, Aaron Sandilands and Michael Walters will all probably come back into the side over the next few weeks. The St Kilda loss may be the reality check the Dockers needed but at the same time, it still may have cost them a top-two position, now that Hawthorn’s beaten Sydney. Predicted Finish: Third
5: Port Adelaide – Wins 12, Losses 5, Percentage 132.4
Final Stretch: Collingwood, Sydney, Gold Coast, Carlton, Fremantle
Port Adelaide did everything in their power to blow last weekend’s clash with Melbourne but ultimately Jay Schulz held his nerve and secured a much-needed win. The Power have been looking tired and their defence hasn’t been right without Jackson Trengove and Alipate Carlile. Ken Hinkley will be hoping the week off does his players the world of good and they find their groove again, for they face tough challenges against Collingwood, Sydney and especially Fremantle on the road in the last round. Ultimately, we still think they may have blown a chance at the top four. Predicted Finish: Fifth
6: North Melbourne – Wins 10, Losses 7, Percentage 112.5
Final Stretch: Geelong, GWS, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Melbourne
North are so flaky it’s easier to predict the winner of The Batchelor than trying to tip how they’ll go week to week. They have the talent to win all these games and make a charge at the top four, while their so erratic they could lose any of them. The games against teams around them on the eight are critical, so the matches against Geelong and Adelaide will determine how their season goes. We’re going out on a limb and saying they’ll win four of these games. They have to, otherwise the challenge may be seriously coming from Collingwood: Predicted Finish: Sixth but don’t hold us to it.
7: Essendon – Wins 10, Losses 7, Percentage 109.8
Final Stretch: Sydney, Richmond, West Coast, Gold Coast, Carlton
Like North, we feel Essendon can win four of these matches, but Sydney on the rebound will be a step too far for the Bombers. They’ve been in good form and Jake Carlisle has been doing the best Wayne Carey impersonation we’ve seen in some time. But the key issue here may be confidence. If the Bombers’ confidence takes a belting from the Swans, they could be in trouble. That’s what happened last year. Their confidence was smashed by Hawthorn in Round 18, although the ASADA issues didn’t help. This year under Bomber, they may just be a different, more mature kettle of fish. But they still have to limit the damage against the Swans so their percentage doesn’t take too much of a hit. Predicted Finish: Seventh
8: Adelaide – Wins 9, Losses 8, Percentage 109
Final Stretch: West Coast, Brisbane, Richmond, North Melbourne, St Kilda
The Crows continued their charge up the ladder with a solid win over the Magpies, made better by the fact they did it without key onballer Scott Thompson. Everything seems to be coming good for Adelaide at the right time and they even showed their maturity as a side to reel off five goals in five minutes just when the Magpies looked like getting on top in the final term. Adelaide have the talent to win all their last five matches, but we think they’ll win four and be just shaded by North at Bellerive. That would give them 13 wins and a spot in the eight, perhaps on percentage over Collingwood. Predicted Finish: Eighth
9: Collingwood – Wins 9, Losses 8, Percentage 105
Final Stretch: Port Adelaide, West Coast, Brisbane, GWS, Hawthorn
The Magpies can take some heart out of Sunday’s loss to Adelaide. Their skills let them down at critical times in this encounter but they re-discovered the pressure footy that was their hallmark during an impressive first half to the season. If they can deliver this pressure footy consistently, they’re not out of the running to make finals and can still win four of their last five games, starting with Port Adelaide next Sunday. Lose to Port and they may need to beat Hawthorn in the final game to get in and hope their percentage is better than Adelaide’s. It’s looking very tricky indeed. Predicted Finish: Ninth
10: Gold Coast – Wins 9, Losses 8, Percentage 96.1
Final Stretch: St Kilda, Carlton, Port Adelaide, Essendon, West Coast
The Suns completely lost the plot in the first term against Brisbane and never recovered their poise. They simply must find a way to win without Ablett, but at this stage they look maybe 12 months away from being genuine finalists. We still think they’re capable of beating St Kilda, Carlton and possibly West Coast but 12 wins may not be enough this time around. Predicted Finish: Tenth