It’s not surprising, though, to see Fremantle and Sydney leading the way with five straight wins heading in to Round 18.
What is surprising in the graphic below, is that the Dockers are a fair bit ahead of the Swans in percentage, Freo having 188.30 to the Swans’ 157.98. Known for their ruthless defence – a notion borne out by the fact they’re the only team to concede under 300 points with 292 – the Dockers are also hitting the board in attack as well, posting the third-highest tally of points after Hawthorn and Adelaide.
That being said, all Fremantle’s matches have been against opponents outside the top eight. Sydney, on the other hand, have played one top-eight opponent, having come away with a thrilling four-point victory over then top-of-the-table Port, while their win over West Coast was in torrential conditions in Perth.
In Chris Scott’s words last week, Geelong are the AFL’s men of mystery and that’s shown in these stats. They may have won four of their last five to have the third-best form line, but all these victories have been against opponents outside the eight. Their percentage is also boosted by the fact St Kilda and Melbourne hardly scored against them. But the one side they played from the top bracket during this time, Gold Coast, they lost to.
Hawthorn, meanwhile, have played three top-eight opponents and have still recorded the highest tally of points of any side in the last five matches. The Hawks were outdone by North Melbourne in a match where they struggled with injuries and Brian Lake’s brain snap, but aside from that, solid wins over Collingwood and Gold Coast show Alastair Clarkson’s remain right in the hunt for the flag. The Hawks’ problems, though, are down back, where they’re still lacking tall defenders in the absence of Lake and Josh Gibson. And that’s reflected in the fact they’re only the ninth best team defensively.
Coming just after the Hawks, we can see why Adelaide appear the side most likely to be a bolter for the top eight if Collingwood, Gold Coast, Essendon or even North Melbourne stumble badly.
Having got their best team out on the park, the Crows have played four top-eight teams in the last five. They have only won two of those games – to go with a 68-point thumping of GWS – but losses to Essendon and Hawthorn have been narrow ones. The Essendon result will still really rankle Brenton Sanderson, as his side were way down before a late comeback meant they only fell by nine points. Had they played four quarters and won that match, they would have been right up with the big boys in terms of form lines and a position in the eight.
The Crows lead a group of six teams on three wins in the last five. The main player in this group are the Bombers who have leapt into the top eight on the back of hammering Collingwood last week. The flip side to that is North Melbourne. Seeing as this table is just focussing on the five weeks heading into the round, they remain right up there. But their inconsistency against a lesser opponent was once again exposed on Friday night in a 23-point loss to Carlton, leaving the Kangaroos seriously exposed to Gold Coast and Adelaide charging from below.
The others, though, are making up the numbers a little, with Richmond, West Coast and the Western Bulldogs finding some late-season form but being way off the pace in terms of finals.
Next up is the two expansion clubs, Gold Coast and GWS who both have just two wins from their last eight. Yet the form here is misleading. The Giants did produce consecutive wins over Brisbane and Carlton for the first time in their history but have since lost three in blow-outs. And Gold Coast, have had a brutally tough draw over the last five and have probably done well to beat Geelong and Collingwood, especially with no one on the bench in the final term against the Magpies. That lack of rotation – coupled with injury – may have played a role in last week’s loss to the Dogs, but The Suns should be able to bounce back although for now, it’s no Gazza, no Gold Coast.
This brings us to the teams with just win, which includes the two big names in Port Adelaide and Collingwood. Highflying midway through June, the two teams are now in big trouble, although the Magpies seem worse off, given that Nick Maxwell has now retired and Dane Swan is done for a month.
Heading into the season, many thought the Magpies may struggle to make the eight given last year’s culture change. But their early-season form seemed to indicate a top-four finish. Yet as injuries and suspensions hit, that form’s tailed away big time, leading to last Sunday’s horror show against Essendon. But maybe, that’s where Collingwood are at. Maybe we simply have to acknowledge they’re a rebuilding side and sometimes 10-goal losses happen to such teams. Either way, with their confidence battered, the Magpies have to find something quick to stay in the hunt for finals, especially in terms of defence, the fourth-worst in the league coming into this round.
Similarly, injuries have hit Port hard, but they also have several star players down on form and that’s reflected in their solitary win. But the Power have been way more competitive than the Pies, as shown by the fact they remain the sixth-highest scoring team in the comp during this period. It’s their defence, that’s struggling though in the absence of Alipate Carlile and Jackson Trengove.