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Under-rated
Sportingbet’s Adam Patterson says the bookies stand to lose big time should Port Adelaide’s Robbie Gray win the Brownlow Medal.
Having examined each match of the season, Sportingbet’s analysis suggests Selwood should poll 25 votes and edge out his former team-mate, injured Gold Coast skipper Gary Ablett, by a single vote.
The same analysis has Gray finishing six adrift of Selwood on 19 votes but his strong finish to the season and win in the Coach’s Association award may have the bookies a little nervous.
“There’s been a lot more money for him to win the Brownlow and he’s the second-worst result for the overall Brownlow book,” declared Patterson.
“He got backed from 200-1 at the start of the year, all the way into $6.”
Gray definitely flew under the radar at the start of the season, perhaps accounting for his early 200-1 odds. Having suffered a horrific ruptured ACL in Round 4 2012 – described by some as a car crash injury – Gray wasn’t quite at his best last year despite doing well simply to return to footy.
But with another pre-season behind him, the midfielder has delivered in a big way, especially during the latter parts of 2014, with the midfielder/forward a $1.30 favourite to take out the most votes for Port Adelaide in the Most Votes per Team market and $6 overall for the Medal.
Some canny watchers got in early, though, with one punter putting $100 on him at 200-1 and another $125 at 100-1 during the middle of the season.
Along with Gray, the bookies could lose big time should some of these other big bets get up, with one punter placing $5000 on Aaron Sandilands to win the Brownlow at $34. That may seem an extreme bet, but the fact Sandilands became a four-time All Australian during the week lends it some credibility, although Nathan Fyfe may take some votes off the big man.
And, while Gary Ablett is certainly one of the favourites at $4 behind Joel Selwood at $2.75, one punter placed $60,000 on Ablett early in the season when the Suns’ skipper was flying high at $2.05 to claim his third medal.
Over-Rated
They may be up there among the favourites to win the Brownlow Medal but Patterson believes Hawthorn’s Jordan Lewis, Essendon ball-magnet Dyson Heppell, Collingwood skipper Scott Pendlebury and Adelaide’s Patrick Dangerfield may all struggle to take Charlie home.
“Jordan Lewis, we think he’s got a ceiling of about 19 votes,” said Patterson, with Sportingbet’s analysis having him finish on 16.5 votes, 8.5 adrift of Selwood’s 25.
Heppell is further back on 15 although he remains a big chance to poll the most votes for his club – especially as his form picked up while Jobe Watson was injured - and he’s the $1.25 favourite to do so for the Bombers.
“Heppell is being well backed in the open market, but we think he’s definitely under-priced now,” Patterson said.
“A lot of punters think he stands out with his big blonde locks ... but we think he’s about seven or eight off the eventual winner.
“Scott Pendlebury has got a ceiling of about 19 votes, which would make him about six off the lead,” Patterson added.
“And, Patrick Dangerfield, he’s 100-1 but he should be a bit bigger, we don’t really give him much hope this year.”
Players steal votes off each other in top teams
This is one of the major myths linked to the Brownlow Medal, one that goes some way to explaining why Sportingbet don’t believe Jordan Lewis will win. At the same time, for the Swans, Josh Kennedy and Lance Franklin may also nullify each other’s chances of winning.
Patterson says there’s some merit to the idea of looking at the teams favoured to take home the highest total number of votes – in this case favouritism is pretty much down to ladder order – and then choosing to back a player who doesn’t play in the very top sides.
“It does make sense,” Patterson said. “You want to back the best midfielder in the best teams in the comp, which definitely makes sense. But there’s lots of other players take votes off them.
“Whereas Geelong, no disrespect to the other players, but Selwood and Stevie Johnson are the two blokes who get 30 to 35 possessions regularly in that team.
“Matty Priddis, it’s him for West Cost,” added Patterson, with Sportingbet’s analysis suggesting the gritty Eagles’ onballer could get about 20 votes, making him a $14 favourite for the medal.
“(Along with Ablett), they’re the stand-out players who rack up the ball.”
However, this idea is probably only half true. If we look back, there have been 27 players win a Brownlow since 1990, with 1996 (James Hird and Michael Voss) and 2003 (Adam Goodes, Nathan Buckley and Mark Ricciuto) delivering multiple winners.
Out of these 27 players, only 14 winners have come from sides that finished outside the top-two that year. The fact 13 players have won Brownlows from top-two teams means that despite some stiff competition from within, the best players in the best teams are still an almost 50 percent chance of taking home Charlie.
That being said, the idea a stand-out player in an ordinary team can really stack up the votes has been shown over the last 10 years in particular. This was seen by the fact Chris Judd (West Coast 2004, 30 votes), Adam Cooney (Western Bulldogs 2008, 24), Chris Judd (Carlton 2010, 30), Jobe Watson (Essendon 2012, 30) and Gary Ablett (Gold Coast 2013, 28) all delivered big numbers as they romped to Brownlow Medal wins.
* Odds subject to change
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