The Hawks last week in Western Sydney were missing key players in Lake, Hodge, Lewis, Frawley; but they were down a good 10% on their regular output. In this competition, a bad day like that will cost you. They were beaten around the contest and were run off their feet in the final quarter which is highly unusual for a Hawthorn team.
Whilst this game on paper against the Demons looks like four points in the bank, they can’t afford to put in the same lack of effort or it could cost them again. Three and four is unlikely for the reigning premiers, and it doesn’t cost you a flag, but it does put you behind the 8-ball.
Melbourne on the other hand have seem to have lost all their run in the last two weeks. Fair enough excuse that they did play two really good sides that are well above them, but the same endeavour hasn’t been there.
Roos has taught the Dees how to defend like their lives depend on it, and that’s a good start. But it’s the hurting teams on the rebound that hasn’t fully developed yet. There were good signs in their wins and away against Adelaide, but bar that, their running game when winning back the ball has seemingly disappeared as they went into their shells.
Melbourne are not as bad as their results over the last two weeks, they’re getting there. The problem is they have to believe in their own growing abilities. It’s slow progress, but positive thinking and confidence does go a long way.
Key Match Ups
Tom McDonald vs Jack Gunston
Tom McDonald’s great start to the season will be put to the test. Gunston is maturing into a fine footballer, deceptively tall and quick with a great leap. McDonald and his fellow Dees defenders have to be on the front foot because he often gets the footy on a platter.
Shaun Burgoyne vs Jeff Garlett
Perhaps won’t go head to head, but Burgoyne often rotates from the midfield into half back or sometimes deep in defence. Garlett is very good at exposing space and anyone able to either keep up with him or close him down will need to be on the job.
Result
This should be a comfortable win to Hawthorn, but they have put in four quarters here. Melbourne might finally get in the right frame of mind to take the game on and it could get interesting, but the Hawks still probably have too much class all over the park.
Hawks by 35.