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North Melbourne are the riddle that few have solved. They are capable of white-hot patches of football and complete brain fades, often within the same quarter.
The fact the Kangaroos won two finals in 2014 suggests stability is very close, but whether North can go all the way in 2015 remains another question in itself.
The model is a very poor man’s Hawthorn – develop a core group of draftees and add on as time goes with free agents and trading. While they don’t have the purchasing power of the Hawks or Swans, the Roos have got themselves into what they believe is a premiership window with a handful of moderately-sized purchases.
After a disappointing 2013, North Melbourne enlisted the help of former Swans, Geelong and St Kilda assistant Leigh Tudor, known for his stoppage and structure set ups. This change had mixed results; North played well when travelling and games against quality opposition became wins, but kept dropping games to - at least on paper- inferior opposition.
Jarrad Waite and Shaun Higgins are no game breakers by any extent of the imagination, but they are more than best 22 players on output. Despite having few A-Graders - Brent Harvey Harvey, Nick Dal Santo, Lindsay Thomas, Andrew Swallow and Scott Thompson can be at this level when in-form - there is a wide range of good to very-good players. Unfortunately, these sorts have just drifted in and out of seasons a little too much, stunting their development and limiting their output.
In those individuals is where North Melbourne’s successes or failures lie. If the likes of Ben Cunnington (nearly there), Shaun Atley,Jack Ziebell, Aaron Black or Ryan Bastinac rise to what they’ve teased, perhaps dreams of a flag aren’t as bizarre as they once seemed.
They don’t deserve to be favourites yet, but they’re an ever-growing threat alongside Port Adelaide to the Hawthorn/Sydney status quo.
Players to watch
Aaron Black
The versatile forward had a very inconsistent 2014, mostly due to shoulder problems and poor form. His highlight reel suggests he can take everything from strong grabs to create from higher up the ground. If he can return over 40 goals this year, North’s forward line becomes a minefield for the opposition, with the best defenders going to Petrie and Waite.
Kayne Turner
Going to be impossible for Brad Scott to drop Turner unless he needs a break for fitness reasons. Nine tackles in the semi-final win over Geelong and looks hot to trot off pre-season form. Turner and Luke McDonald seem to be able to provide North with excellent output despite their inexperience.
Ben Cunnington
Should be a defining year for the midfielder. No longer hampered by a lack of fitness and his ball use has been cleaned up radically. Top-20 Brownlow medal finish lock.
Key games
Round 1 v Adelaide – Traditionally struggled in Round 1, with their only recent win coming over Melbourne in 2009. Get off to a flyer and the self-belief begins to kick in.
Round 11 v Sydney – Play them at home for the first time since 2011. This will be a huge Saturday night clash with massive end-of-season ramifications.
Round 20 v Fremantle – Only top-six team from 2014 North play after Round 16. Win the other six fixtures and get the points here, that crucial double chance will likely be theirs.
Finishing position – 4th