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2010 AFL Finalists

09/02/2010 06:00:01 AM

We take a look at the contenders for the 2010 AFL Premiership and how they might go in the finals.

Collingwood
They may have copped some heat in the early rounds of the season when Darren Jolly and Luke Ball took a few weeks to find their feet but the two recruits have undoubtedly added an extra dimension to a Pies team that had been to at least the second week of the finals in the three previous seasons. In the past, Collingwood has been criticised for a perceived inability to beat top teams but in 2010 they've knocked over Geelong and St Kilda once each, seen off the Western Bulldogs twice and have also beaten every other team that will play finals. With a miserly defence led by Nick Maxwell and a superb midfield headed by Brownlow fancy Dane Swan, the one knock on Mick Malthouse's team is up front. Travis Cloke has had another disappointing year kicking for goal and several team-mates have also been wayward in the front half, with their overall conversion tracking at exactly 50 percent at 322.322. Club great Peter McKenna fears that poor kicking for goal could prove Collingwood's Achilles heel.

Geelong
The hunted after an amazing four seasons in which they have won two flags and were beaten favourites in the other decider (in 2008), Geelong have taken a deliberately more cautious approach with any injury concerns this season. They will be close to full strength come the first week of the finals and their best, such as their second quarter against the Bulldogs in Round 20, remains head and shoulders above the rest. But Mark Thompson still hasn't settled on his ideal formation with Cam Mooney, James Podsiadly and Tom Hawkins among his key targets up forward and the likes of Brad Ottens, Mark Blake and Hawkins sharing ruck duties at different times. Mature-age recruit Podsiadly will miss the qualifying final, meaning he could be sidelined for an extra week if the Cats advance straight to a preliminary final. Still the team to beat if they can produce their best when it counts.

St Kilda
After dominating the home-and-away season 12 months ago and then doing likewise in September until a failure to take their chances in the grand final left them two goals adrift against Geelong, St Kilda have learned that the time to be peaking is September. After another impressive display in the first half of the season the Saints have tailed off a little but one gets the feeling that heavy loading in training - which the Cats almost certainly did as well - may have contributed to their flat spot and that they are just priming themselves for another big finals campaign. They do need Michael Gardiner back on deck but otherwise will also be at full strength and have the goods to go one better than last year.

Western Bulldogs
After an indifferent start to the home-and-away season the Bulldogs appeared to be coming good at the right time after winning seven of eight games leading up to Round 20, with the one defeat in that two-month period by just three points to Hawthorn. But then a virus swept through the club leading up to their clash with Geelong, which they astonishingly lost by 101 points, and they followed up with another heavy defeat against the Swans. Worse than either of those losses though were the three injuries they picked up in the Sydney game with the season over for Adam Cooney (hamstring) and Dale Morris (back) and Brad Johnson (Achilles) and Shaun Higgins (virus) both also in severe doubt to play again this year, Higgins having been sidelined for a couple of weeks longer. Without all that firepower, and having failed to beat Collingwood (twice), Geelong or St Kilda in four clashes with their top-four rivals this year, it's hard to see the Western Bulldogs mounting a charge from here.

Sydney
One of the two sleepers sitting outside the top four, the Swans have been feeding off a desire to send out retiring captain Brett Kirk and coach Paul Roos - who will move to a role with the club's new youth academy at season's end - on the best possible note. Capable of beating any of their rivals in the bottom half of the eight, the one major concern for Roos would be that he still can't call on bookends Daniel Bradshaw (hamstring) and Craig Bolton (Achilles). Bradshaw is an outside chance of returning but Bolton is almost certainly gone for 2010. Emotion might get them to a semi or perhaps even a preliminary final but without one or both of Bolton and Brawshaw, and with ruckman Shane Mumford also battling injury, the Swans aren't capable of going all the way.

Fremantle
Time will tell whether coach Mark Harvey's decision to rest seven of his front-line players from the Round 21 trip to Tasmania was the right call but the results in the weeks leading up to that game suggested that several members of his team were starting to feel the pinch. After being tipped by many to finish in the bottom four again this year, Harvey has worked wonders with his team, but with a host of youngsters in his side, Michael Barlow (broken leg) gone for the year and Aaron Sandilands (foot) and Chris Tarrant (knee) both battling injury, Harvey knows that 2010 will not be their year. One gets the feeling that they'll be happy to win one final this year and that anything more than that will be a bonus.

Hawthorn
Hawthorn have had a funny season, starting with a win before enduring six losses on end but then they hit form with seven wins in a row and eight from nine games. The draw in Round 17 cost them momentum and it wasn't until they belted a severely undermanned Fremantle in Round 21 that they made sure of their spot in the finals. Not many teams contend after being 1-6 seven rounds in but some of the other teams at the top of the ladder will be hoping that Alastair Clarkson's team doesn't get through the first week or two of the finals, especially Geelong, because having won the flag just two years ago there are plenty still running round in the brown and gold from that triumph. The only team that could threaten the top four but from potentially seventh or eighth with an interstate trip first up it would take everything going right for them to go all the way.

Carlton
Midway through the year Carlton was eyeing off a top-four berth thanks to seven wins from 11 games, including triumphs over both last year's grand finalists but things haven't exactly gone to plan since then. They've done enough to qualify for September but are badly missing young ruckman Matthew Kreuzer and unless their little men up forward fire, with support from Jarrad Waite and/or Lachie Henderson, they have little hope of advancing beyond the second weekend of the finals at best. They still have a classy midfield led by skipper Chris Judd but his disposal hasn't been as devastating this year as in past seasons and their defence still remains a worry as well. An interstate trip first up won't help the cause and, like 12 months ago, that might be as far as they go in 2010, especially if they were to cop a fired-up Sydney first up.

 
Comments
Posted by mothy at
06/09/2010 05:24 PM
You seriously think Geelong are the team to beat? I have to disagree. As much as I dislike the Pies, they have clearly been the best team through the minor rounds. The only reason Geelong has any chance against the Pies is that they are such an experienced bunch of champion players. But they will need to be at absolutely 100% to beat the Pies or hope the Pies are off their game.

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