VENUE & TIME: ANZ Stadium, Sunday 5 September, 2.40pm (AEST)
HEAD TO HEAD: Played: 214, Carlton 125, Sydney 83, Draws: 6
LAST TIME: Sydney 16.11 (107) def Carlton 10.8 (68), Round 16, 2010 at Etihad Stadium
WALKING WOUNDED: According to Sydney's official injury list, five players - Daniel Hannebery (hamstring), Kristin Thornton (hamstring), Brett Meredith (hip), Tadhg Kennelly (knee) and Shane Mumford (knee) - will need to pass fitness tests to be considered for selection. Ed Barlow and Lewis Roberts-Thomson will need another week before they're over their hamstring issues while Craig Bolton (Achilles), Ben McGlynn (cheekbone) and Craig Bird face a further fortnight on the sidelines. Jake Orreal (back) and Mark Seaby (ankle) are done for the season. Andrew Carrazzo is the only player on Carlton's list who's a chance to play this week. Carrazzo needs to pass a fitness test on the hamstring injury he picked up against the Dockers last Friday. The other injured Blues - Ryan Houlihan (knee), Kane Lucas (hamstring), Rhys O'Keeffe (back), Matthew Kreuzer (knee) and Simon White (hip) - will not play again this season.
FORM:
Sydney's Past Five:
Round 22: Win, 16.10 (106) - 10.8 (68) v Brisbane Lions, the Gabba
Round 21: Win, 17.12 (114) - 10.10 (70) v Western Bulldogs, SCG
Round 20: Win, 14.12 (96) - 13.9 (87) v Fremantle, Subiaco
Round 19: Win, 19.15 (129) - 13.7 (85) v Hawthorn, SCG
Round 18: Loss, 9.18 (72) - 20.5 (125) v Geelong, ANZ Stadium
Carlton's Past Five:
Round 22: Loss, 13.9 (87) - 13.15 (93) v Fremantle, Subiaco Oval
Round 21: Loss, 12.7 (79) - 18.13 (121) v Geelong, Etihad Stadium
Round 20: Win, 23.18 (156) - 10.7 (67) v Richmond, MCG
Round 19: Win, 23.11 (149) - 9.19 (73) v Essendon, MCG
Round 18: Loss, 9.3 (57) - 15.15 (105) v Collingwood, MCG
WHO'S HOT: Mike Pyke played by far the best game of his nascent AFL career against Brisbane at the Gabba last Saturday. The former Canadian rugby international gathered 15 possessions, had 33 hitouts and laid eight crunching tackles. His numbers in all three statistical categories were career-highs. Simply outstanding. Marc Murphy's hard running earned him an equal team-high 30 touches in Carlton's six-point loss to the Dockers at Subi. The 23-year-old was also credited with six tackles and scored the all-important opening goal of the final term that sparked the Blues' brave fightback.
WE THINK: The Swans have a lot to recommend them in this one. They have winning form, home advantage, a settled line-up, the reigning Rising Star in their ranks, a retiring veteran and coach whose careers they are determined to extend as far as possible, and a compelling 13 wins from their past 14 outings against the Blues. The recurring theme of these contests over the past decade has been Carlton's inability to cope with Sydney's hardness. The Blues have a mercurial quality that's balanced by an extensive catalogue of failings. Only two of their 11 home and away wins were achieved against top-eight rivals which suggests that eighth is just about their right spot. They're capable of surprising, but the odds heavily favour the hosts. The Blues lost to the Swans in the opening match of the pre-season and their year is set to finish the same way. It's Sydney by 23 points.