VENUE AND TIME: Etihad Stadium, Thursday July 1, 2010, 7.10pm (AEST)
HEAD TO HEAD: Played: 21, Carlton 9, Brisbane 12
LAST TIME: Brisbane 16.11 (107) def Carlton 12.16 (88), Round two, 2010, at the Gabba
LAST TIME AT VENUE: Carlton 18.11 (119) def Brisbane 15.10 (100), Round two, 2009.
WALKING WOUNDED: The Lions will be without key forwards Brendan Fevola and Jonathon Brown, who both have spent recent days having treatment on their sore groins by a specialist in Adelaide. But they are set to recall Simon Black (virus), James Polkinghorne (thigh) and Ashley McGrath (hamstring) The Blues will be without premier ruckman Matthew Kreuzer (knee reconstruction) for the rest of the season. Midfielder Brock McLean will miss up to a month after having knee surgery. Chris Johnson (wrist) faces another week on the sidelines while Jarrad Waite begins a two-week suspension. Key midfielder Marc Murphy (hamstring soreness) will return after he was a late withdrawal against Fremantle.
FORM:
Carlton
Round 13: Loss, 12.15 (87) – 14.12 (96) v Fremantle, Etihad Stadium
Round 12: Loss, 10.8 (68) - 14.13 (97) v North Melbourne, Etihad Stadium
Round 11: Win, 15.11 (101) - 9.6 (60) v Melbourne, MCG
Round 10: Win, 15.15 (105) - 11.10 (76) v West Coast, Etihad Stadium
Round 9: Loss, 8.12 (60) - 16.14 (110) v Hawthorn, Etihad Stadium
Brisbane
Round 13: Loss, 12.14 (86) – 15.15 (105) v Richmond, Gabba
Round 12: Loss, 8.8 (56) - 17.19 (121) v Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium,
Round 11: Loss, 13.11 (89) - 12.18 (90) v North Melbourne, Etihad Stadium
Round 10: Win, 13.10 (88) - 11.14 (80) v Collingwood, the Gabba
Round 9: Loss, 11.15 (81) - 13.15 (93) v Adelaide, AAMI Stadium
For the Lions, it's simply a tale of woe, having won just one of their past nine games. Seemingly a lock for a top-four berth during the pre-season, the Lions will almost certainly now miss the finals, turning the spotlight on coach Michael Voss and his decision to recruit discards from rival clubs. For the Blues, it's a tale of recent frustration. Where the Blues remained firmly in the hunt for a top-four berth three weeks ago, they are now fighting just to remain in the top eight after successive losses in matches they privately would have penciled in for victory.
WHO'S HOT: There's been little rave about in Brisbane, although midfielder Michael Rischatelli has enjoyed a strong season, Daniel Rich much the same, while Luke Power has been as consistent as ever, although he may have dropped a fraction in pace. Former Eagles Brent Staker has proven himself a consistent performer at both ends of the ground and may emerge as the Lions' best recruit. With their depth tested even further, the Lions are set to unveil rookie Jesse O'Brien, the No.73 overall pick in last year's national draft who has impressed on the wing in the reserves this season. For the Blues, Bryce Gibbs has been a stand-out across half-back, although the midfield coaches have been hankering for him to spend more time further up the ground. Andrew Carrazzo has morphed himself into a quality tagger.
WE THINK: The last time these clubs met, in round two at the Gabba, Brown dominated with seven goals and Fevola added three. Now he and Fevola, tipped over summer to share 150 goals this season, are absent, leaving everyone – including coach Michael Voss – to wonder where the goals will come from. Perhaps the inconsistent Jared Brennan will be the wildcard. Voss has put his entire playing list on notice so expect some physical play early from the under-manned Lions. For the Blues, successive losses to North Melbourne and the Dockers have meant aspirations of a top-fourth berth have plummeted to just wanting to remain in the top eight. Ratten's tactics have again been questioned of late, with Kangaroos coach Brad Scott stopping just short of labeling the Blues predictable in their set-ups and style. The Blues push up the ground at every opportunity, leaving them vulnerable if opponents find the ball and space on the rebound. Veteran defender Bret Thornton was publicly castigated for his efforts and having a verbal shot at teammate Kade Simpson against the Dockers. He, again, has much to prove. While absence of Waite will hurt the Blues' structure, that they won't have to deal with regular nemesis Brown means they should win this. Carlton by 11 points.