VENUE & TIME: The Gabba, Saturday July 31, 7.10pm (AEST)
HEAD TO HEAD: Played: 17, Brisbane 10, Melbourne 7
LAST TIME: Melbourne 15.13 (103) def Brisbane 7.11 (53), Round 5, 2010 at the MCG
LAST TIME AT VENUE: Brisbane 16.15 (111) def Melbourne 8.8 (56), Round 13, 2009 at the Gabba
WALKING WOUNDED: Brisbane is finally set to welcome back Jed Adcock (foot) but Troy Selwood (glute) and Simon Black (ankle) must pass fitness tests while Amon Buchanan (quad), Andrew Raines (quad) and Josh Drummond (knee) will all miss at least this week. Jamie Charman (ankle), Callum Bartlett (knee), Mitch Golby (knee), Matt Austin (leg) and Donald Barry (sinus) are all gone for the year. For Melbourne, Brent Moloney (thigh) will have to prove his fitness in order to take his place but Jack Grimes (hamstring), Jordan Gysberts (back), Danny Hughes (ankle), Michael Newton (quad) and Jake Spencer (back) can't be considered this week and John Meesen (foot) and Ricky Petterd (shoulder) are done for 2010.
FORM:
Lions Past Five:
Round 17: Loss, 9.10 (64)-19.13 (127) v Cats, Skilled Stadium
Round 16: Loss, 7.1 (43)-17.16 (118) v Hawks, Aurora Stadium
Round 15: Loss, 10.5 (65)-11.13 (79) v Saints, the Gabba
Round 14: Loss, 9.11 (65)-18.12 (120) v Blues, Etihad Stadium
Round 13: Loss, 12.14 (86)-15.15 (105) v Tigers, the Gabba
Demons Past Five:
Round 17: Win, 22.10 (142)-10.9 (69) v Swans, MCG
Round 16: Loss, 10.11 (71)-11.16 (82) v Dockers, Subiaco
Round 15: Win, 19.8 (122)-14.19 (103) v Bombers, MCG
Round 14: Loss, 9.11 (65)-15.10 (100) v Saints, Etihad Stadium
Round 13: Loss, 11.7 (73)-16.21 (117) v Crows, AAMI Stadium
The Lions have simply been dreadful since shocking the Magpies at the Gabba in Round 10. That upset win aside, they've lost their past seven games and the five before that, the most recent defeat last week's hiding at the hands of competition heavyweights the Cats. There's a lot to like about the way the Demons have been performing in recent times, last week's belting of the favoured Swans keeping alive Dean Bailey's team's slim finals hopes but they virtually need to win every game in the run home to make the eight.
WHO'S HOT: In a team so comprehensively beaten it's hard to single out players who have been performing well for Brisbane but Albert Proud made the most of his recall after some personal problems earlier in the season and skipper Jonathan Brown booted four goals. With Moloney a late withdrawal last weekend Colin Sylvia stepped up superbly in his absence with a brilliant best-on-ground display. The dominance of Melbourne's midfield was also capped by the sharp-shooting Brad Green who snagged five goals.
WE THINK: The corresponding game between these teams way back in Round 5 at the MCG can now be pinpointed as the day Melbourne announced itself as a team on the rise and Brisbane's slump began. They may have beaten the Crows and Tigers in previous weeks but most expected the Demons to prove no match for the unbeaten Lions who were flying high with Brown and Brendan Fevola working well together in the early rounds. A couple of hours later and Melbourne had a 50-point win that not only had many judges raving but also began Brisbane's downward spiral. On current form it's impossible to pick the Lions even if the game is being played at the Gabba, with their confidence at a low ebb, expect the visitors to win comfortably. Demons by 28 points.